As the share of GVCs in global trade increased in the 1990s and early 2000s (Figure 1.2), so did the diversification of markets as seen in the decline of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) – a measure of market concentration – until the 2000s (Figure 1.3). [...] This divergence in the speed and strength of economic activity in the APEC region and the global economy is expected to continue in the near term, aggravated by unequal access to the vaccines, treatments and medical supplies needed to combat COVID-19. [...] Healthier prospects for APEC GDP growth in the near term compared to the February 2021 Update of the ARTA85 are in line with the improved forecasts for the global economy and the rest of the world (Table 2.5). [...] On the other hand, the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects the volume of world trade to expand by 8.0 percent in 2021 after declining by 5.3 percent in 2020, which is better than the earlier projection of a 9.2 percent contraction, reflecting the recovery in world trade in the second half of 2020 in line with the global economic rebound (Table 2.6). [...] In parallel, assistance to businesses in the form of loans and subsidies has to be calibrated according to the stage of the pandemic and the viability of firms, with proper assessment of the employment they could generate to support economic recovery.
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- Singapore
