Will It Be The Economy Stupid? State of the Namibian Economy 2024 by Robin Sherbourne 29 August 2024 State of the Namibian Economy: The Story So Far State of the Namibian Economy: How We Got Here and Where We Are Going on 28 September 2022 made three points: 1. [...] Because economic policy-making design and implementation has been poor with economic considerations relegated to political and ideological ones (amply documented in “Guide to the Namibian Economy”) 3. [...] Two major developments on the horizon - oil and gas as well as green hydrogen – with potential to shift economic dial (hence “great leap forward”) State of the Namibian Economy: The Story So Far State of the Namibian Economy: A Fork in the Road made three points: 1. [...] Policies we design and implement in next year or two will determine future trajectory (hence “fork in the road”) State of the Namibian Economy 2024 ● Review latest economic indicators ● Review key events since last presentation ● Review policy developments ● Look ahead to coming year State of the Namibian Economy 2024: Plug for IPPR QER QER Feature Q4 2018 Reforming Namibia’s Commercial State-Owne. [...] Big boys can look after themselves? Oil and Gas Summary Key oil and gas points: 1.
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Table of Contents
- State of the Namibian Economy The Story So Far 2
- State of the Namibian Economy The Story So Far 3
- State of the Namibian Economy A Fork in the Road made three points 3
- The economy had almost recovered from Covid 3
- Slow and confused policy development in advance of 3
- Policies we design and implement in next year or two 3
- State of the Namibian Economy 2024 4
- Review latest economic indicators 4
- Review key events since last presentation 4
- Review policy developments 4
- Look ahead to coming year 4
- State of the Namibian Economy 2024 Plug for IPPR QER 5
- Economic Indicators Growth 6
- Growth Lets Take A Closer Look 7
- Growth Lets Take A Closer Look 8
- Economic Indicators Investment 9
- Economic Indicators Structural Change 10
- Economic Indicators Monetary Policy 11
- Economic Indicators Fiscal Policy 12
- Economic Indicators Credit and Banking 13
- Economic Indicators Other Indicators 14
- Economic Indicators Tourist Arrivals 15
- Highlights 23 August 2023 29 August 2024 16
- Highlights 23 August 2023 29 August 2024 17
- Highlights 23 August 2023 29 August 2024 18
- Highlights 23 August 2023 29 August 2024 19
- Highlights 23 August 2023 29 August 2024 20
- Policy Developments 21
- Grey listing avoided hopefully 21
- Namibian Investment Promotion and Facilitation Bill confused consultation 21
- National Equitable Economic Empowerment Bill with legal drafters 21
- New Minerals Act with legal drafters 21
- Green Hydrogen legislation in pipeline 21
- Special Economic Zones with legal drafters 21
- Public Enterprise reform gone quiet 21
- Welwitschia Sovereign Wealth Fund final draft available 21
- Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative membership awaiting decision 21
- Preliminary census results published 21
- More About Policy Lack of Developments 22
- NEEEB 1 August 2019 but process started in 2004 As stated by HE the President finalisation of NEEEB is a key priority and the Bill will be tabled in Parliament within 6 months. 22
- NIPA 1 August 2019 but process started after passing of NIPA in 2016 The Act could be operational by the end of this financial year. 22
- Public Private Partnership Unit in MoFPE after PPP Act of 2017 Do we have any PPPs 22
- Policy Developments 23
- A few words about investment framework 23
- Oil and Gas Summary 24
- Key oil and gas points Door closing on new oil and gas projects IEA 2021 Galp discovery adds to Shell and TotalEnergies 24
- 1. 2. 24
- Orange Basin technically challenging far from shore 24
- 4. 5. 6. 7. 24
- Gas as well as oil and BW Energys Kudu Oil faster than gas but onshore gas potential Qatar Limited jobs but significant revenues to Government Could be a blessing but depends on how resource is 24
- FID by 2025 Maggy Shino 24
- Oil and Gas Summary Drilling Record 25
- Green Hydrogen Summary 26
- Hyphen Phase 1 end 2027 and Phase 2 2029 latest update no mention but ESIA in Q3 2024 26
- Cleanergy Solutions Namibia was end Q1 2024 now Q4 2024 26
- HDF still by 2025 26
- Enersense Dâures was Phase 1 Q2 2024 then Phases 2-4 now 18 tons of gh2 and 100 tons of gnh3 towards the end of this year 26
- Kaoko Green Energy Solutions with AW-Energy gone quiet 26
- Fortescue Future Industries SCDI and Dâures and Cleanergy 26
- HyIron Oshivela still late 2024 26
- HopHydro under the radar 26
- Greengo Energy under the radar 26
- Chiffon under the radar 26
- Green Hydrogen Summary Rubber is Meeting the Road 27
- GH2 Implementation Authority up and running 27
- NCE objections to gh2 development in unique national park in Namibia to help EU achieve emissions reduction Red Hydrogen 27
- NCE highlights need for strategic land plan before developments go ahead 27
- Other land issues with SDM 27
- Planning and coordination issues 27
- Green Hydrogen Summary Rubber is Meeting the Road 28
- We already have a policy on prospecting and mining in protected areas 28
- Engineers can build wonderful things but 28
- A Word About Politics Is It The Economy Stupid 29
- Smooth presidential transition earlier in the year following passing of HE President Hage Geingob 29
- South African elections in May resulted in a coalition 29
- National elections on 27 November 2024 Namibias eighth 29
- Afrobarometer results nearest we have to opinion polls 29
- High levels of registration 29
- But big policy cans have been kicked down the road 29
- Continuity or change 29
- Do manifestos count and what alternatives are being offered 29
- A Word About Politics Afrobarometer opinion survey 30
- A Word About Politics Afrobarometer opinion survey 31
- The Coming Year 32
- Global developments especially Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine Palestine-Israel-Iran Chinese economy US elections and global politics friendshoring energy security climate policies and diamonds 32
- Further monetary and fiscal easing in Namibia 32
- Progress on oil and gas drilling and pre-FID 32
- Progress on Cleanergy Dâures and HyIron demonstration plants 32
- Progress with NamPower projects BESS Annixas II Otjikoto biomass Khan solar Lüderitz wind 32
- Namibian elections at the end of 2024 32
- No big decisions until after new Cabinet is sworn in in March 2025 32
- First oil and gas FID in 2025 32
- To Sum Up 33
- Economy recovered from Covid hit 33
- For the first time at election on average people poorer than in 2015 33
- Interest rates starting to come down 33
- No significant public sector reform in sight 33
- Continued drilling for oil and gas and FID in 2025 33
- Progress on selected green hydrogen demonstration plants 33
- Slow progress on power 33
- Continued uncertainty over investment environment 33
- What will elections bring and will anyone champion reform 33
