Immigration and Social Security actuary.org S E P T E

Immigration is a crucial component both to the trajectories of the population of the United States and the financial condition of the Social Security system. [...] The varied and changing characteristics of immigrants and the complexity of their effects on the population and the economy, along with limited reliable data, makes for considerable uncertainty regarding the number of immigrants and their composition. [...] Each year, the Office of the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration, on behalf of the Social Security Board of Trustees, projects the finances of Social Security. [...] The Social Security trustees project the average number of immigrants of about 1.3 million per year for 2027 through 2054, in comparison to that of the Congressional Budget Officexiv of about 1.1 million and that of the Censusxv of about 0.9 million. [...] It is a summary measure of the program’s financial status throughout the 75-year valuation period—the sum of the asset reserve at the beginning of the period and the present value of the income during the period, minus the present value of the costs during the period including a target ending reserve of one year’s cost, divided by the sum of the present values of the taxable payroll for the valuat.