Comm (Economics) Corresponding Author: jamestaylor86@hotmail.com 8 mailto:jamestaylor86@hotmail.com Appendix 2 The Missing Whole-of-System Cost Model in the AEMO 2024 ISP The Real Cost of the NEM Transition A Report by Independent Engineers, Scientists and Professionals 31 July 2024 Summary The government has not provided a true estimate of cost for AEMO’s plan to transition the NEM to intermitten. [...] The present plan for transition of the NEM is disastrous in terms of reliability, cost to the economy and in particular to the environment, without being a path to the lowest emissions. [...] The DRM is the surplus/deficit of the sum of baseload power over peak demand in each of the 8 and 16 hour periods. [...] Except for the Baseline 2024 ISP model using only the capacities specified in the ISP, the capacity data for other models is adjusted to achieve a DRM in each period and year of at least plus 20% to ensure reliability in the face of facility outages. [...] The capital costs for each of three periods, 2024-30, 2030-40 and 2040-50 are estimated as the sum of the various generation capacities installed in each period plus the replacement for past installations that have exceeded lifetimes valued by the cost assumption for the mid-point of each period.
Authors
- Pages
- 17
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- Introduction 1
- The Imperative for Action 1
- Updated Assessments since Final release of the 2024 ISP 1
- Specific Recommendations 1
- Independent Engineers Scientists and Professionals 3
- Introduction 4
- Failure to Address Clearly Stated Reliability Issues 4
- Deceptive Data Concerning Dispatchable Power 4
- A Whole-of-System Power Budget Shows Failure of Reliable Power at Night 5
- AEMOs Attempt to Demonstrate System Reliability is Misleading 6
- Conclusions 7
- Independent Engineers Scientists and Professionals 8
- Summary 9
- A More Comprehensive Capital Cost Analysis 9
- Conclusions 10
- Recommendations 10
- Independent Engineers Scientists and Professionals 11
- Baseline 20024 ISP Model Case 13
- Baseline Plus Additional Gas Generation Case 14
- Baseline Plus Additional Storage and Wind Solar Case 14
- An 89 Gas Powered Grid Case 15
