I N T E L L I G E N

Adoption of ICD 203 and ATS have been recognized as an important advancement in the professionalization of intelligence analysis17 and scholars and practitioners have written to the benefit of incorporating ATS into analysis18 at the tactical, operational and strategic levels.19 With the advent of AI and its potential impact on the conduct and profession of analysis, the time may be right to reexa. [...] iii The AI-T must also detail which assumptions serve as the “linchpin” of their argument “or when they bridge key information gaps.” The ability of an AI-T to identify how an argument/judgment will survive without key information allows the tool and the user to understand the critical features of the line of analysis. [...] In this context, analysts must have confidence that the tools and systems they use allow them access to the underlying sources of the information for their results and that the analyst understands the reliability of that information and the potential for it to contain error and bias. [...] As noted in the ATS 3 example, any AI tool must be able to “demonstrate the underlying rationale behind decisions and responses to both users and overseers.”36 For all concerned, the ability to understand and interrogate an AI system’s output is crucial to having confidence in the findings and the tool. [...] Kent was integral to the establishment of analytic practice in the CIA and the US Intelligence Community and is the namesake for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis.