This raises the question of which data It is too soon to determine the precise report—the survey of employers’ payrolls or the survey cause of the plunge, but changes in the of household employment that estimates the number types and number of jobs and erroneous of workers—best reflects the U. [...] Historically, the gap between the numbers of reported workers and payroll jobs tends to decrease during economic expansions as payroll jobs rise faster than the number of workers, and in turn, rises during recessions and early recoveries as payroll jobs decline by more than the number of workers. [...] For example, an undercounting of the working-age population in the mid- to late 1990s caused low employment estimates.8 What Is Happening Today? Workers and Payroll Jobs The recent plunge in the gap between jobs and workers likely stems from more than one factor, and it is too soon to determine the precise cause. [...] BG3849 A heritage.org undercount of the Hispanic population.11 A Pew Research Center report about the quality of the 2020 census posited that Hispanics and other racial groups that were undercounted “are less likely to fill out census forms and respond to census workers who come to the door for reasons that could include lack of trust and feelings of disconnect when it comes to the government.”12. [...] The declining gap in the late 1990s was potentially caused by errors in population estimates that led to the household survey underestimating the true number of workers and thus reducing the gap between jobs and workers.
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Table of Contents
- Two Distinct Measures Payroll Jobs and Employed Workers 2
- Historic Trends 2
- Potential Reasons for Gaps 3
- Jobs and employment data can differ for multiple reasons including 3
- Diference Between Reported Numbers of Workers and Payroll Jobs 3
- Historically the gap between the numbers of 4
- Cyclical changes are not necessarily straightforward in direction 4
- Erroneous Population Estimates. 5
- What Is Happening Today Workers and Payroll Jobs 5
- One known source of the declining 5
- Factors that Can Aff ect Gap Between Reported Workers and Jobs 5
- Impact of Overstated Payroll Job Gains on Gap 6
- Surge in Inadmissible Alien Population Could Have Unequal Impacts on Numbers of Reported Workers and Payroll Jobs 7
- Policies to Maximize Work However It Is Measured 9
- Expand Alternative Education Options. 10
- Not Restrict Job Opportunities. 10
- Make Welfare Work-Oriented and More Effective. 11
- Make Work Pay by Reducing Governments Take. 11
- Conclusion 11
- The recent and unprecedented divergence between payroll jobs and 11
- Endnotes 13
