This report presents findings from the 17th wave of the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker, focusing on public perceptions of immigration in the context of heightened political and social tensions. Conducted shortly after the UK's general election and following riots during the summer of 2024, the research captures the polarised views on immigration, particularly on topics like asylum, work migration, and political responses. It discusses the significant divide in public attitudes based on political affiliation, age, and views on asylum seekers. The report highlights how a growing segment of the public wants immigration numbers reduced but struggles to identify which flows of immigration should be cut, especially as certain sectors depend on migrant workers. The findings also discuss political challenges faced by the new government, including how to manage rising public discontent over small boat crossings while maintaining humane asylum processes. Moreover, the study underscores how partisan polarisation is growing in the UK, driven by differing views on immigration’s impact on society and the economy.
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- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
- Immigration in the new parliament 1
- Contents 3
- 1. Introduction Immigration in the new parliament 4
- 2. About this report and the immigration attitudes tracker 7
- Immigration attitudes at a time of heightened tension 9
- 3. Public attitudes to immigration in the new parliament 10
- Do people think immigration has a positive or negative impact on Britain 11
- Do people want immigration numbers to increase decrease or stay the same 12
- Public expectations on net migration will it go up or down 14
- Which types of migration do people think account for most of the numbers 14
- Do we talk too much or too little about immigration 16
- Satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the government 16
- Control vs deterrence 17
- 4. Asylum Channel crossings and humanitarian routes 19
- Public sympathy for people crossing the Channel 20
- A new deal with France 22
- Increasing legal routes 22
- Humanitarian resettlement 23
- Rwanda 24
- 5. Immigration for work 25
- The new government has been given a head start on reducing immigration 25
- Migration for work is underestimated 25
- Migration and the economy 26
- The public supports increasing or retaining migration levels to key occupations and sectors 27
- Migration for work Labours challenges and opportunities 30
- The politics of immigration in the new parliament 32
- 6. After the riots How to engage with legitimate concerns and differentiate them from those with no legitimacy 33
- So how should politicians and the media those in civic society and the broader public think and talk about the role of both legitimate concerns and illegitimate prejudices 34
- Engaging with illegitimate concerns 37
- The Conservative record on immigration 39
- 7. The lessons of political failure on immigration The Conservatives in government and the new challenges of opposition 39
- The electoral impact of immigration in 2024 40
- The leadership contest and the dilemmas of control 42
- How low could immigration go 45
- Challenges for the Conservative opposition 47
- 8. Keir Starmers balancer challenge Could the increasing polarisation of immigration politics be checked 48
- Immigration in the 2024 general election Labours unusual comparative advantage 49
- The coalition of almost everywhere how the geography of the 2024 general election will influence the politics of immigration 50
- Trust in Labour on immigration 51
- Labours parallel challenges on immigration 53
- The immigration election especially for Reform voters 55
- Who trusts Reform and who doesnt 55
- 9. The Farage Factor The impact of Reform on the immigration debate 55
- Why Reform voters are different 58
- Reform voters are not a monolithic block mainstream populists and the extreme fringe 59
- The Farage paradox revisited 61
- 10. The new Yellow Wall How the Lib Dems advanced a liberal agenda in the general election 63
- The new Yellow Wall 66
- 11. Conclusion constructive reforms to build confidence and consent 67
- The following recommendations set out a series of options for constructive reform in the new Parliament that are controlled managed and fair. 68
- 12. Notes and references 71
