Global Energy Outlook Comparison Methods: 2024 Update - Daniel Raimi and Richard G. Newell

Our purpose is not to conceal differences across institutions in their views about the future outlook for the energy system, but rather to control for differences in convention and data sources that thwart an accurate assessment of underlying assumptions and judgments about the short, medium, and long terms in different outlooks. [...] This paper identifies that institutional sources differ in the following ways and seeks to address these challenges: • units of primary energy consumption (e.g., QBtu, mtoe, mboe) • assumptions for the energy content of fossil fuels and use of net and gross calorific values for fuels • assumptions regarding the efficiency of conversion to primary energy and of noncombustible energy sources (e.g.,. [...] The level of primary energy consumption and fuel composition for a country or region are affected by the population, economic output and structure, stage of development, indigenous resource availability, and level of energy efficiency. [...] Harmonized and Unharmonized Primary Energy Consumption in 2021 Resources for the Future 18 Table 10 shows the percentage difference between IEA and all other outlooks in terms of primary energy consumption by fuel. [...] Conclusion Energy industry experts, policymakers, and a variety of other stakeholders make decisions and plan for the future based on the information and analysis in energy outlooks produced by governmental, intergovernmental, and private institutions.