exports to the rest of the world (excluding China) increased slightly, and China’s exports to the rest of the world (excluding the U. [...] and to the rest of the world in response to the tariffs. [...] In South Africa and the Philippines, the tariff increases reduced both exports to the U. [...] The countries that suffered the most were also those that could least afford it: the trade-to-GDP ratios of the heavily indebted poor countries and the least developed countries (according to the UN definition) declined by 5.8 and 5.0 percentage points, respectively. [...] These impacts demonstrate the complex and far-reaching consequences for the South of the U.
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- Published in
- Morocco
Table of Contents
- THE TRADE WAR AND THE U.S. ELECTION WHATS AT STAKE FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1
- INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 3
- THE 2018 TRADE WAR 3
- MAIN CAUSES OF THE TRADE WAR 5
- IMPACTS ON U.S.-CHINA TRADE 6
- IMPACTS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 8
- FUTURE OUTLOOK AND POTENTIAL SCENARIOS 12
- SCENARIO ONE SHIFT TOWARDS 13
- RECONCILIATION 13
- SCENARIO TWO CONTINUATION OF CURRENT 14
- TRENDS 14
- SCENARIO THREE INCREASED 14
- PROTECTIONISM FROM THE WEST 14
- AND DIVERSION OF CHINAS SURPLUS TO THE 14
- SOUTH 14
- POTENTIAL RESPONSES AND MITIGATING 18
- STRATEGIES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 18
- CONCLUSION 20
- REFERENCES 21
- ABOUT THE AUTHOR 23
- ABOUT THE POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH 23
