Adverse external and domestic shocks led to a sharp slowdown in early 2023, but economic growth is gaining momentum thanks to a strong rebound in exports and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, risks remain elevated, including because of a weak real estate sector and leveraged corporates. Headline inflation accelerated mostly owing to food prices. Despite a large current account surplus, the currency has been depreciating amidst record low domestic interest rates.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400290404.002
- ISBN
- 9798400290404
- ISSN
- 1934-7685
- Issue
- 306
- Pages
- 97
- Published in
- United States of America
- Series
- Country Report No. 2024/306
- Stock No
- 1VNMEA2024001
- Volume
- 2024
Table of Contents
- Vietnam - 2024 - Article IV - Staff Report - For Publication 6
- Context and Recent Economic Developments 9
- Outlook and Risks 12
- Policy Discussion 13
- A. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy 14
- B. Fiscal Policy 17
- C. Financial Sector 19
- D. Structural and Climate Policies 22
- Staff Appraisal 25
- Annex I. Progress Against IMF Recommendations 41
- Annex II. Integration of Capacity Development Assistance in Surveillance 44
- Annex III. Risk Assessment Matrix 47
- Annex IV. External Sector Assessment 49
- Annex V. Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Vietnam7F6F6F 52
- A. Growth Accounting Decomposition 53
- B. Identification of Medium-Term Growth Drivers Using Machine Learning 54
- C. Vietnam’s Medium-Term Growth Path: Lessons from its Peers 56
- D. Conclusions 59
- References 61
- Annex VI. Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Impact on Trade and FDI8F8F8F 62
- A. Trade Developments 62
- B. FDI Dynamics 66
- C. Conclusions 67
- Annex VII. Revised Law on Credit Institutions Reforms 70
- Annex VIII. Improving the Production and Dissemination of Economic Statistics—Challenges and Benefits14F14F 72
- Annex IX. Debt Sustainability Analysis 77
- Annex X. Data Issues 86
- 0BFigure 1. Vietnam: Recent Economic Developments 28
- 1BFigure 2. Vietnam: Prices and Wages 29
- 2BFigure 3. Vietnam: External Sector 30
- 3BFigure 4. Vietnam: Monetary Sector 31
- 4BFigure 5. Vietnam: Fiscal Sector 32
- 5BFigure 6. Vietnam: Financial Sector Developments 33
- Vietnam - 2024 - Article IV - Informational Annex - For Publication 88
- Fund Relations 89
- RELATIONS WITH OTHER INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 92
- Vietnam - 2024 - Article IV - Press Release - For Publication.pdf -1
- 6BVietnam: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020–2025 -1
- Vietnam - 2024 - Article IV - Press Release - For Publication.pdf -1
- 6BVietnam: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020–2025 1
- PR24347 - Vietnam - IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam (2).pdf 1
- Vietnam: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020–2025 5
