Topic Brief - Electric Loads by State in 2030 from Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles

ACEEE Report Topic Brief Electric Loads by State in 2030 from Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles AUGUST 2024 Abstract This brief analyzes the impacts of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (e.g., trucks and buses) on hourly electric demand by state. [...] We find that by 2030, these vehicles will add about 1,000 megawatts (MW) to peak load in Texas, about 500 MW to peak load in California, and 200-500 MW of peak load in 14 other states. [...] By combining these two sources of data we can estimate power needs by hour of the day, allowing utilities and regulators to begin to plan for the impact of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles on peak electricity demand. [...] We then take estimates of 24-hour load shapes for these vehicles developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for the California Energy Commission (Crisostomo 2021) and apply these to estimate average load by state for each of three periods that are often peak-demand periods—mid-afternoon (3-4 pm), evening (8-9 pm), and early Electric loads in 2030 from medium and heavy-duty vehicles © ACEEE. [...] To put these figures in perspective, in 2023, the peak electric demand was about 85,500 MW in Texas1 and 44,500 MW in California.2 Fourteen other states have hourly loads of 200 MW or more during the afternoon— Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Alabama, South Carolina, New York, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Utah, Tennessee, and Louisiana.