To estimate average costs, we weight each CDR approach based on its projected percentage of total CDR deployment, assuming that the minimum and maximum estimates of potential scale correspond to the minimum and maximum estimates of estimated costs, respectively.12 Other studies by prominent groups, such as the IPCC and IEA, rely on the Fuss et al. [...] The substantive portion of the survey began with two questions focusing on the most significant barriers to widespread CDR and the policies most likely to help make large-scale CDR viable and efficient. [...] 28 Specifically, IEA (2022) finds that “Together with DACS, the most promising CDR options include afforestation and reforestation (AR) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS).” 29 We make this calculation using two approaches: (1) we multiply the mean of the responses for the most likely amount of removal in 2075 from Question 3 and the mean response for the estimated percentage contribution by CDR catego. [...] We asked respondents to estimate both the average cost of the technology over which they have the most expertise, and the average cost of all other CDR approaches (grouped together). [...] 35 Average Costs and Total Costs of CDR in 2075 Using responses to Questions 3 through 6, we are able to calculate the average cost and total cost of CDR in 2075 on the likely emissions path.34 We find that the mean and median average cost of all CDR activities is $127/tonne and $98/tonne, respectively, with a 90th percent confidence interval of $24/tonne to $300/tonne.
- Pages
- 86
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- Table of Contents 3
- Introduction 6
- Background on CDR Approaches 8
- The Utility of Expert Elicitation 10
- Recent Relevant Studies 12
- Expert-Elicitation Studies on CDR Approaches 12
- Major Reviews of CDR Cost and Deployment 14
- Survey Design and Administration 18
- Respondent Criteria 18
- Survey Administration and Response Rate 19
- Forecasting and Confidence Intervals 21
- Contextual Information Provided 21
- Respondent Details 21
- Number of responses 24
- Academic 24
- Private Sector 24
- Government 24
- PolicyNon-Governmental Organization 24
- Other 24
- Student 24
- Survey Results 27
- In Question 6 each respondent was asked to estimate the cost of the approach over which they have the most expertise as well as the average cost of all other approaches 39
- Average Costs and Total Costs of CDR in 2075 41
- Average and Total Cost of All CDR Activities in 2075 41
- Context 44
- 1 investment in carbon capture technologies by the United States energy and 49
- 2 the annual carbon capture capacity Mt CO yr of announced carbon capture 49
- Results by Subgroup 51
- Economics Journals vs. Interdisciplinary Journals 51
- Primary Category of CDR Expertise 52
- Professional Discipline 52
- Regional Differences 53
- Conclusion 54
- Appendix A. 55
- Full Survey Text 55
- Please click here for definitions. 56
- Comments optional 58
- Comments optional 59
- Available background materials 60
- Comments optional 61
- Comments optional 62
- Comments optional 63
- Comments Optional 64
- Context 65
- Based on policies and corporate spending on emissions mitigation before the U.S. passage 65
- In 2022 IEA member countries most of continental Europe North America Australia 65
- The United States energy and industrial sectors invested 151 million in 2022 2022 USD 65
- According to the IEA the future capacity of carbon capture projects announced in 2022 65
- Available background materials 65
- Comments Optional 65
- Available background materials 66
- Comments Optional 66
- Context 67
- Available background materials 67
- Comments Optional 67
- Appendix B. 68
- Journals Used to Identify Respondents 68
- Appendix C. 69
- Additional Results 69
- Appendix D. 70
- IPCC Climate Scenarios 70
- Appendix E. 72
- Figures Results by Subgroup 72
- References 82
- Journal of Economic Literature 48 82
- American journal of economics and sociology 82
- Project report to the European Commission EUR 18820 82
- Computers in Human Behavior 82
- Environmental Research Letters 82
- Psychological Bulletin 82
- Harnessing renewable energy in electric power systems 82
- Resource and energy economics 21 82
- Climatic Change 1622 213- 232. 82
- Institute for Policy Integrity New York University School of Law. 83
- Institute for Policy Integrity New York University School of Law. 83
- Expert Elicitation and the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases 83
- Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 83
- Survey Practice 83
- Science of the total environment 687 83
- Energies 12 83
- Science of the Total Environment 766 83
- BMC Research Notes 15 83
- Environmental Research Letters 12 83
- Environmental science technology 54 84
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121 84
- Discerning experts The practices of scientific assessment for environmental policy 84
- Sustainability 14 85