cover image: Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal - A Large-Sample Expert Elicitation on the Future of CDR

Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal - A Large-Sample Expert Elicitation on the Future of CDR

2 Aug 2024

To estimate average costs, we weight each CDR approach based on its projected percentage of total CDR deployment, assuming that the minimum and maximum estimates of potential scale correspond to the minimum and maximum estimates of estimated costs, respectively.12 Other studies by prominent groups, such as the IPCC and IEA, rely on the Fuss et al. [...] The substantive portion of the survey began with two questions focusing on the most significant barriers to widespread CDR and the policies most likely to help make large-scale CDR viable and efficient. [...] 28 Specifically, IEA (2022) finds that “Together with DACS, the most promising CDR options include afforestation and reforestation (AR) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS).” 29 We make this calculation using two approaches: (1) we multiply the mean of the responses for the most likely amount of removal in 2075 from Question 3 and the mean response for the estimated percentage contribution by CDR catego. [...] We asked respondents to estimate both the average cost of the technology over which they have the most expertise, and the average cost of all other CDR approaches (grouped together). [...] 35 Average Costs and Total Costs of CDR in 2075 Using responses to Questions 3 through 6, we are able to calculate the average cost and total cost of CDR in 2075 on the likely emissions path.34 We find that the mean and median average cost of all CDR activities is $127/tonne and $98/tonne, respectively, with a 90th percent confidence interval of $24/tonne to $300/tonne.
Pages
86
Published in
United States of America

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