Wildfire Season Forecast - Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources

2021_SeasonalFire_ICLR 1 Wildfire Season Forecast Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada Forecast 2021 May 20, 2021 2 2 Background information 3 3 Wildland fire in Canada • Fire numbers and areas burned are highly variable •Number of fires decreasing; area burned increasing? • Consider better detection and suppression 4 4 Wildland fire in Ca. [...] 9 9 Fire problems in ENSO Springs El Niño: Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ • Warm, 1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 windy, dry in 1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 western Large area burned 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -. [...] Anomaly Predicted values normalized against average weather 27 27 Yellowknife, NT, May 2021 run GEM-NETMemOpe (rtaotupre) forecasts lower temperaPturerceip aitantdio nseverity rating than CM4i (bottom) 28 28 The Pas, MB, May 2021 run GEM-NETMemOpe (rtaotupre) and CM4i (bottom) forecParsetc iwpitartimon and dry 29 29 Season to Date – CIFFC (May 19. [...] Carr@canada.ca 5320 122 Street NW Edmonton, AB, Canada T6H 3S5 825-510-1265 780-710-3147 mailto:Richard. [...] Carr@canada.ca 35 Arctic Oscillation Quebec Area Burned (NFDB, ha*1000) 2020 69 2019 10 2018 86 2017 38 2016 33 2015 5 2014 64 2013 1900 2012 64 2011 12 2010 315 2009 94 2008 1 2007 343 2006 136 2005 800 2004 3 2003 88 2002 1000 2001 33 2000 39 14H x 10.5W .