Japan: America's Indispensable Ally in the 21st Century

As global power shifts from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, the US-Japan alliance is emerging as a central pillar of American strategy, similar to the US-UK partnership that defined the 20th century. Tokyo’s strategic position in countering China’s regional hegemony mirrors Britain’s role in countering German dominance in Europe during the last century. Under the leadership of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan pivoted from post-World War II pacifism toward a robust military buildup aimed at balancing China’s rise. Abe’s initiatives, such as redefining the Asia-Pacific as the “Indo-Pacific” and strengthening military capabilities, have positioned Tokyo as America’s “co-pilot” in various minilateral security arrangements. The deepening US-Japan alliance reflects a broader integration, with Japan playing a co-pilot role in regional security, from participation in minilateral groups like the Quad, Squad, Chip 4, and the Camp David trilateral to potential direct support for US Navy logistics and operations. This strategic partnership is evolving into a joint alliance integration, poised to shape not only the future of the Indo-Pacific but also the global order, much like the US-UK alliance shaped the 20th century. In the 20th century, the United States and Great Britain formed a special relationship that defined the century, ensuring American primacy and British survival as the world transitioned from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana. Across the Atlantic, once a British colony, America stood as a steadfast ally in the two great world wars. In addition to their shared culture and history, Washington recognized London’s pivotal role as an anchor state for American power in Europe. Against the specter of German aggression and continental hegemony under Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler, the US-UK alliance served as a bulwark against Imperial German and Nazi domination of continental Europe. Since the dawn of this millennium, there has been a clear shift in the global economic balance of power from Europe to Asia, and a new military balance of power will follow, as history informs us. Consequently, the fate of American power now hinges on the Indo-Pacific, where the specter of Chinese regional hegemony looms large. Washington is currently engaged in a vigorous debate over American grand strategy for the 21st century, with advocates of an Asia-first approach competing against those who prioritize Europe. As the Ukraine War drags on, this debate is likely to cross partisan lines. At its core is the question of whether a new successor, such as Japan, is taking over London’s role from the last century. There is little doubt that Japan now serves as the anchor of US power in the Indo-Pacific. The US-Japan alliance is poised to define America’s Asian and global role, as well as Japan’s survival—just as the US-UK alliance did in the 20th century. In response to the 2012 report by Richard Armitage, Joseph Nye, and Michael Green, which questioned whether Japan would become a Tier-two nation, the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emphatically declared, “Japan is not, and will never be, a Tier-two country. That is the core message I am here to make. And I reiterate this by saying, I am back, and so shall Japan be.” Abe was a transformative figure for Japan and its central role in American power. Abe and Japanese defense planners were among the first to grasp the strategic and military implications of China’s rise and its effects on the balance of power in Asia, while Washington was embroiled in the endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Backed by the Japanese strategic community, Abe embarked on a mission to redefine the Asia-Pacific as the Indo-Pacific and successfully lobbied Washington to adopt this expanded regional concept. This expansive “Indo-Pacific” geography led Abe to believe that India might play a significant role in the regional balance of power, as he hoped to achieve with his 2007 Delhi speech titled “Confluence of the Two Seas.” In other words, Japan’s strategic revival under Shinzo Abe significantly shaped the way the United States engages with East Asia and Asia as a whole.