AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT D Y N A M I C S

Table of Contents

• Foreword 5
• Acknowledgements 7
• Editorial 11
• Abbreviations and acronyms 21
• Executive summary 25
• Overview 29
• Skills development can increase the productivity of Africa’s talent pool and create jobs 29
• Figure 1. Minimum proficiency in mathematics and reading and primary school completion in selected countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, 2019 30
• Figure 2. Percentage of tertiary education graduates from programmes in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and gross enrolment rates in African countries, average 2015‑23 32
• Table 1. Demand for and supply of digital skills across Africa 32
• Figure 3. Jobs requiring digital skills by 2030 in five African countries, by skill level 33
• Better policies contribute to productive and inclusive skills development in Africa 33
• Figure 4. Primary school completion, public education spending and share of official development assistance allocated to education, by world region, 2000‑22 34
• Table 2. Challenges and policy actions to boost skills, jobs and productivity 34
• Table 3. Skills, jobs and productivity: Policy recommendations by region 37
• Notes 38
• References 38
• Chapter 1. Skills development for Africa’s productive transformation 43
• In brief 44
• Continental profile 46
• Figure 1.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending by world region, 2000‑22 46
• Figure 1.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation by world region, 2021 46
• Africa’s growing talent pool is seeking better opportunities for productive employment 47
• Figure 1.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling by world region, 2020 47
• Figure 1.4. Minimum proficiency in mathematics and reading and primary school completion in selected countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, 2019 48
• Box 1.1. Defining and assessing skills in this report 48
• Box 1.2. Supply of and demand for skills for productive employment in Africa 50
• Figure 1.5. Potential economic gain from children’s achieving at least basic proficiency in foundational skills in world regions by 2100 50
• Limited access to quality education, labour market divides and a slow productive transformation curtail Africa’s skill supply and demand 51
• Figure 1.6. Disparities in educational outcomes across genders and rural and urban areas in Africa 52
• Figure 1.7. Disparities in skilled occupations across genders and rural and urban areas in Africa 53
• Table 1.1. Three salient labour market divides in Africa 54
• Figure 1.8. Value added per worker in major sectors in Africa, 2001‑21 55
• Figure 1.9. Evolution of employment by sector in Africa, 2001‑21 55
• Figure 1.10. Percentage of workers involved in low‑, medium‑ and high‑skilled occupations by economic activity in Africa, 2021 or latest year 56
• Figure 1.11. Percentage of workers who have an equal, higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, by world region, 2022 or latest year available 57
• Figure 1.12. Net international migration of African LinkedIn users by top five and bottom five skills and industries, 2015‑19 58
• As African economies diversify, workers need more soft, business and sector-specific technical skills to increase productivity and technology adoption 58
• Figure 1.13. Labour force breakdown by occupation in selected African countries, 2021 or latest year available 59
• Table 1.2. Policy priorities for reducing skill gaps in Africa 60
• Figure 1.14. Importance of foundational and soft skills in selected agrarian and diversifying African economies and other world regions 60
• Figure 1.15. Importance of business and managerial skills and technical skills in selected agrarian and diversifying African economies and other world regions 61
• Figure 1.16. Percentage of tertiary education graduates from programmes in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and gross tertiary enrolment rates in African countries, average 2015‑23 62
• Digital skills are in demand across the continent, while the need for green skills will increase with climate challenges 63
• Table 1.3. Demand for and supply of digital skills across Africa 64
• Box 1.3. Massive open online courses and e‑learning in Africa 64
• Figure 1.17. Jobs requiring digital skills in 2030 in five African countries, by skill level 65
• Figure 1.18. Differences in adoption of artificial intelligence across African countries and other world regions 66
• Box 1.4. The artificial intelligence revolution and online labour 66
• Figure 1.19. Shares of online workers across selected African countries, 2020 67
• Figure 1.20. Computer skill differences among 15‑24 year olds by gender in selected African countries 68
• Annex 1.A. The nexus of migration and skills in Africa 70
• Annex Figure 1.A.1. Africa’s stocks of high‑ and low‑educated migrants per region of origin and destination, in thousands, 2020 70
• Annex Figure 1.A.2. Occupational skills of immigrants and natives across selected African countries 72
• Annex 1.B. Analysis of skill importance using labour force statistics and the O*NET database 73
• Annex Table 1.B.1. Classification used for the Africa’s Development Dynamics 2024 analysis 74
• Notes 76
• References 76
• Chapter 2. Policies for productive and inclusive skills development in Africa 85
• In brief 86
• Table 2.1. Challenges and policy actions for skills development for productive employment 89
• African countries can be strategic in meeting emerging needs for technical skills in priority sectors, digital skills and green skills 89
• Table 2.2. Steps to design nationally specific skill strategies 90
• Box 2.1. Deriving skill trends through occupation‑skill matching classifications 91
• Box 2.2. The potential of job board data to inform skill gap assessments in Africa’s labour markets 92
• Table 2.3. Job boards in selected African countries 92
• Box 2.3. National artificial intelligence strategies and inclusive skills development in Africa 93
• Efficient education spending, cost‑effective interventions and learning assessments can help expand quality education 93
• Table 2.4. Steps to expand quality education through learning assessments and cost‑effective interventions 94
• Table 2.5. Policy options to improve learning outcomes in African countries, by cost‑effectiveness 95
• Table 2.6. Overview of standardised learning assessments in African countries 96
• Box 2.4. The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment 96
• Training and skill recognition can benefit informal and female workers in African countries 97
• Table 2.7. Steps to improve the labour productivity of informal and female workers through innovative on‑ and off‑the‑job training and skill recognition 97
• TVET institutions can better respond to Africa’s emerging skill needs 100
• Table 2.8. Steps to help technical and vocational education and training institutions embrace innovative approaches to emerging skill needs 100
• Figure 2.1. Percentage of female students enrolled in secondary technical and vocational education and training in selected African countries, 2017‑19 102
• Box 2.5. Germany’s activities in technical and vocational education and training across Africa 102
• Box 2.6. Bridging educational and skill gaps in Portuguese‑speaking African countries 104
• The regional integration of African skills development depends on harmonised frameworks, international safeguards and partnerships 104
• Table 2.9. Steps for regional and continental integration of skills policies 105
• Box 2.7. The Skills Initiative for Africa 106
• Notes 107
• References 107
• Chapter 3. Skills for mining in Southern Africa 115
• In brief 116
• Southern Africa regional profile 118
• Figure 3.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in Southern Africa, 2000‑22 118
• Figure 3.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in Southern Africa, 2021 118
• Southern Africa can further raise educational outcomes 119
• Figure 3.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling in Southern Africa, 2020 119
• Figure 3.4. Percentage of adolescents in upper secondary school achieving proficiency in mathematics in Southern Africa, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 120
• Figure 3.5. Migrants with tertiary education, origin and destination (Southern Africa, 2020) 120
• Figure 3.6. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations in Southern Africa, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 121
• Figure 3.7. Percentage of workers who have an equal, higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation in Southern Africa, 2022 or latest year available 122
• Southern Africa’s mining sector can benefit from demand‑oriented skills development 122
• Box 3.1. Mining, beneficiation and mining‑based manufacturing 123
• Table 3.1. Top three exports for Southern African countries, 2022 124
• Figure 3.8. Employment by education level in mining and mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa 125
• Figure 3.9. Capacity underutilisation in mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa, 2021‑23 average 126
• Figure 3.10. Capacity underutilisation in mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa due to labour shortages, 2004‑23 (% of total capacity) 126
• Table 3.2. Beneficiation and downstream activities and in‑demand occupations for important mineral value chains in Southern Africa 128
• Harmonised mining policies and better‑targeted education and training can improve skills development for Southern Africa’s mining sector 131
• Table 3.3. Examples of mining sector policies and strategies in Southern Africa 132
• Table 3.4. Tertiary education and training institutions teaching technical mining skills in Zimbabwe 134
• Notes 136
• References 136
• Chapter 4. Skills for mining in Central Africa 141
• In brief 142
• Central Africa regional profile 144
• Figure 4.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in Central Africa, 2000-22 144
• Figure 4.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in Central Africa, 2021 144
• Central African countries are facing a major skills shortage, which has resulted in a preponderance of low‑skilled jobs and widespread informality 145
• Figure 4.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling in Central Africa, 2020 145
• Figure 4.4. Percentage of adolescents in lower secondary school achieving proficiency in reading and mathematics in Central Africa, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 146
• Figure 4.5. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations in Central Africa, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 146
• Figure 4.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation in Central Africa, 2022 or latest year available 147
• Figure 4.7. Percentage of respondents able to use a mobile bank account without the help of a third party in Central Africa 148
• Figure 4.8. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination (Central Africa, 2020) 149
• The region has significant mineral wealth to supply global demand, but little of the material extracted is processed locally due to a lack of skills and infrastructure 149
• Table 4.1. Minerals extracted in Central Africa 150
• Box 4.1. Change in global demand for critical minerals, and implications for Central Africa 150
• Figure 4.9. Minerals as a share of total exports from Central African countries, 2022 151
• Box 4.2. Skills development under the 2009 Africa Mining Vision 152
• Table 4.2. National public mining companies in Central Africa 153
• Figure 4.10. Share of mining companies citing lack of skills as a barrier to investment, 2022 153
• Table 4.3. DR Congo employee quota by job category (2018 Mining Code) 154
• Box 4.3. Difficulties faced by ASM workers 154
• Table 4.4. Skills required by workers to improve the productivity of ASM in Central Africa 156
• Capacity building will be crucial to increase local processing and adapt to technological developments and climate change 156
• Table 4.5. Technical skills and occupations required in critical mineral value chains with a strong presence in Central Africa 157
• Figure 4.11. Percentage of STEM graduates and gross higher education enrolment ratio, 2015-23 average 158
• Box 4.4. The Kibali gold mine in the DR Congo: a case study of modern mining 158
• Figure 4.12. Global water scarcity footprint by mineral 159
• Central African governments have several policy levers at their disposal to strengthen skills and promote better positioning within mining value chains 160
• Box 4.5. African Centre of Excellence for Advanced Battery Research in DR Congo 160
• Table 4.6. Examples of mining training institutions in Central Africa 162
• Notes 164
• References 165
• Chapter 5. Digital skills in East Africa 171
• In brief 172
• Regional profile 174
• Figure 5.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in East Africa, 2000‑22 174
• Figure 5.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in East Africa, 2021 174
• Most workers in East Africa are in vulnerable employment and unskilled occupations, and the quality of education varies widely across countries 175
• Figure 5.3. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations in East Africa, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 175
• Figure 5.4. Percentage of workers who have an equal, higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation in East Africa, 2022 or latest year available 176
• Figure 5.5. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling in East Africa, 2020 177
• Figure 5.6. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination (East Africa, 2020) 178
• Digital skills development is advancing in East Africa but unevenly across countries 178
• Table 5.1. East African countries clustered according to digital economy advancement 179
• Box 5.1. Advancing artificial intelligence and high‑end digital skills in Seychelles 181
• Figure 5.7. Export of services in information and communications technology by selected East African countries 182
• Table 5.2. Examples of digital skills training providers in East Africa 183
• East African countries require specific strategies to develop digital skills based on national levels of supply and demand 185
• Table 5.3. Digital policy and regulatory frameworks in East Africa 186
• Box 5.2. Digital skills policies in least developed countries affected by conflict in East Africa 186
• Table 5.4. Examples of inclusive digital skills development initiatives in East Africa 187
• Notes 191
• References 191
• Chapter 6. Skills for renewable energies in North Africa 197
• In brief 198
• North Africa regional profile 200
• Figure 6.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in North Africa, 2000‑22 200
• Figure 6.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in North Africa, 2021 200
• North Africa must continue its efforts to deliver high‑quality skills for all 201
• Figure 6.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling in North Africa, 2020 201
• Figure 6.4. Percentage of adolescents in upper secondary school achieving proficiency in reading and mathematics in North Africa, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 202
• Figure 6.5. Number of workers by skill level and occupation, latest year available 203
• Figure 6.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation in North Africa, 2022 or latest year available 204
• Figure 6.7. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination (North Africa, 2020) 205
• The renewable energies sector presents a new opportunity to develop skills and productive employment in North Africa 205
• Table 6.1. Socio‑economic effects of the energy transition (under the “1.5°C scenario” compared with the “business‑as‑usual scenario”) 206
• Figure 6.8. Total employment in renewables sector, latest available data 207
• Table 6.2. Renewable energy skills development priorities by North African country profile 207
• Table 6.3. Skills breakdown by renewable energy value chain segment 208
• Box 6.1. Specific skills required for the development of renewable energy value chains 209
• Table 6.4. Degree‑level courses on renewable energies in North Africa 209
• Box 6.2. The Kaizen approach to skills development 210
• Public policies to improve skills in the renewable energy sector in North Africa 210
• Table 6.5. National renewable energy strategies incorporating skills development in the sector 211
• Table 6.6. Transferable skills by value chain segment in the renewable energy sector 213
• Box 6.3. Casablanca Finance City’s AFIC Initiative: a talent pool to catalyse competitiveness 216
• Annex 6.A. Qualitative survey of key actors in North Africa’s renewable energy sector 217
• Notes 217
• References 217
• Chapter 7. Skills for agri‑food in West Africa 223
• In brief 224
• West Africa regional profile 226
• Figure 7.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in West Africa, 2000‑22 226
• Figure 7.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in West Africa, 2021 226
• West African countries have a major shortage of skills 227
• Figure 7.3. Average years of schooling and learning-adjusted years of schooling in West Africa, 2020 227
• Figure 7.4. Percentage of adolescents in lower secondary school achieving proficiency in reading and mathematics in West Africa, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 227
• Figure 7.5. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations in West Africa, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 228
• Figure 7.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation in West Africa, 2022 or latest year available 229
• Figure 7.7. R&D expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) and number of R&D researchers per million inhabitants, average 2010–22 230
• Figure 7.8. Percentage of respondents able to use a mobile bank account without the help of a third party in West Africa 230
• Figure 7.9. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination (West Africa, 2020) 231
• The agri‑food sector: A major lever for productive transformation in West Africa 231
• Table 7.1. West Africa’s highest agri‑food product exports, by country 2018-22 232
• Box 7.1. Developing strategic value chains to boost local industry 233
• Closing the agri‑food skill-gap could boost the sector’s productivity and resilience 233
• Table 7.2. Skills needed for the development of the agri‑food sector 233
• Figure 7.10. Professional skills deficits in selected agri‑food occupations 234
• Figure 7.11. Productivity gap between ECOWAS countries and European and Central Asian countries in agriculture and industry (difference in value added per worker) 235
• Figure 7.12. Researchers in food science and nutrition, latest year available (2014‑16) 235
• Figure 7.13. Researchers in veterinary medicine, latest year available (2014–16) 236
• Box 7.2. Organic farming in West Africa 237
• West African decision‑makers can draw on public policy tools to improve agri‑food skills 237
• Box 7.3. The Songhaï Centre: An agri‑food skills incubator in West Africa 239
• Box 7.4. Agricultural training initiatives in Nigeria 240
• Box 7.5. A commitment to agricultural and rural training 242
• Figure 7.14. Agriculture orientation index for government expenditure and share of total public expenditure spent on agriculture in West Africa, average 2017‑21 243
• Annex 7.A. Technical research centres specialising in agri‑food research 245
• Annex Table 7.A.1. Examples of technical research centres in West Africa specialising in agri‑food research 245
• Notes 246
• References 246
• Annex A. Statistical annex 251