· - ZOiS REPORT BELARUS: FROM THE OLD SOCIAL CONTRACT TO A NEW

The report’s principal findings are as follows: – The paternalist Belarusian concept of the “social contract”, once considered the main reason for socio-political stability in Belarus, has been challenged by the deterioration of the socio-economic situation over the years and the failure of the authorities to address problems such as stagnating salaries and pensions, unemployment and labour migrat. [...] – T he demystification of the Belarusian welfare state, on the one hand, and the unveiling of a brutal police state, on the other, have been the underlying causes (with the Covid-19 pandemic as a trigger) of the erosion of trust in the relationship between state and citizenry and its ultimate collapse. [...] This arrangement made it possible for Belarus to avoid a massive restructuring of the economy, closure of inefficient factories and mass unemployment.6 In addition, energy rents have been an essential prerequisite for the financing of the silovye struktury and hence the regime’s survival.7 The maintenance of the “power vertical” gradually became more important for the regime. [...] Just three months later he then returned to the KGB in a rotation of cadres and was promoted to head the institution.47 In the end of October, the Head of the Minsk Depart- ment of Internal Affairs and one of those responsible for the crackdown of peaceful protests in the capital, Ivan Kubrakov, was appointed Minister of Internal Affairs.48 In the initial stages of the post-election protests in 20. [...] While the authorities, notably the President, seem to be con- vinced that the opposition is attempting to carry out a “colour revolution” in Belarus, the opposition and large segments of the population adhere to the consensus that the authorities and the President are using their monopoly on violence for purely personal gains.