DPG is deeply committed to the growth of India’s national power and purpose, the security and prosperity of the people of India and India’s contributions to the global public good. [...] Derisking and diversification have therefore acquired focus in the West The supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, demonstrated the risks of relying on concentrated manufacturing locations, as in China. [...] The Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips for America Act of the US, and the Net Zero Industries Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act adopted by the EU, are some big ticket initiatives even as there other supportive ones. [...] The report submitted by the former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to the EU Commission President Von der Layen earlier this month21, titled ‘The future of European competitiveness – A competitiveness strategy for Europe’, has called for the EU to raise investments to the tune of over US$ 800 bn a year to fund rapid reform and stop the EU from falling behind the US and China. [...] Future direction of India-China trade and economic ties Against the background already described, and in the light of the ideas put forward in the Economic Survey and the ministerial level caution, the question arises how to move forward on the difficult India-China economic relationship.
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Table of Contents
- V. S. Seshadri Volume IX Issue 24 1
- September 26 2024 1
- Policy Brief Vol. IX Issue 24 2
- September 26 2024 2
- ABOUT US 2
- Author 2
- Cover Photographs 2
- V. S. Seshadri 3
- Travails of Chile and Indonesia ........................................................................................... 1 3
- Economic Survey moots greater facilitation of Chinese investments ..................... 2 3
- The government signals caution ........................................................................................ 2 3
- Focus of this paper .................................................................................................................. 3 3
- Chinas overcapacity is attracting political concern ..................................................... 4 3
- Why should overcapacities arise in the first place Chinas state directed low consumption high savings and industrialisation push model .................................. 4 3
- Chinas subsidies are also opaque ...................................................................................... 5 3
- The West finds itself increasingly in direct competition with China ........................ 6 3
- Derisking and diversification have therefore acquired focus in the West ............... 6 3
- Industrial policies are now increasingly commonplace .............................................. 6 3
- Investments are already ongoing ....................................................................................... 7 3
- With domestic capacities coming up their protection has become a key ............. 7 3
- Even with the full range of trade toolkit at play steps are still seen inadequate .... 8 3
- China too is retaliating........................................................................................................... 8 3
- No sign of any let up .............................................................................................................. 9 3
- Chinas own mitigatory manoeuvres ................................................................................ 9 3
- Increased Chinese investments make imports from China rise further .................. 9 3
- Indias imports from China continue to rise .................................................................. 10 3
- Indias exports stagnate with a diminished share ....................................................... 10 3
- Mutual dependence is fine but asymmetric dependence has risks ....................... 11 3
- A four pronged framework emerges................................................................................ 11 3
- Future direction of India-China trade and economic ties ......................................... 12 3
- Studying Indias import dependence vis-a-vis China ................................................ 13 3
- Will reduction of Indias MFN tariffs be right in the current context .................... 15 3
- Do we have adequate tools for ensuring timely trade remedies ............................ 16 3
- How must India deal with investment proposals ...................................................... 18 3
- V. S. Seshadri 4
- I. Introduction 4
- II. International Backdrop 6
- III. India - China Trade and Investment ties 13
- IV. Conclusion 22
- Delhi Policy Group 23
