The World Energy Outlook 2024 explores the global energy landscape amidst rising geopolitical tensions, notably conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This report presents various scenarios for future energy development, including Stated Policies (STEPS), Announced Pledges (APS), and Net Zero by 2050 (NZE), focusing on how these pathways can address the energy transition, climate goals, and security concerns. It examines the potential for a major shift toward clean energy, with solar and wind power playing critical roles, as well as the risks associated with reliance on fossil fuels. Key themes include the challenges of scaling up renewables, clean energy investment in developing economies, and the security of clean energy supply chains. The report also highlights the rapid growth of electricity demand, driven by emerging technologies such as electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence, and emphasizes the necessity of global cooperation to achieve net zero emissions and secure energy supplies.
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Organizations mentioned
- Pages
- 398
- Published in
- France
Table of Contents
- World Energy Outlook2024 1
- Foreword 3
- Acknowledgements 5
- Table of Contents 11
- Executive Summary 15
- Chapter 1. Overview and key findings 21
- Introduction 23
- 1.1 Scenario overview 24
- 1.1.1 Energy demand 24
- 1.1.2 Total final consumption 25
- 1.1.3 CO2 emissions 28
- 1.2 What do fractured geopolitics mean for the future of energy? 29
- 1.2.1 Fossil fuels 29
- 1.2.2 Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals 32
- 1.3 Are EV sales hitting speed limits? 34
- 1.3.1 Trends in the EV market 37
- 1.3.2 Implications of the transition to EVs for the energy sector 37
- 1.3.3 Key enablers to achieve net zero emissions milestones for EVs 38
- 1.4 How fast might demand for electricity increase? 39
- 1.4.1 Emerging market and developing economies lead demand growth in the STEPS 39
- 1.4.2 Exploring uncertainties in the STEPS 40
- 1.4.3 Clean energy transitions are driving rapid electricity demand growth 42
- 1.5 Is clean power generation growing fast enough? 45
- 1.5.1 Clean power is not yet outrunning global electricity demand growth 45
- 1.5.2 Clean power gets up to speed in most markets by 2030 47
- 1.5.3 Clean power needs to scale up faster to get on track for net zero emissions 48
- 1.6 There is a wave of new LNG coming: where will it go? 50
- 1.7 What will it take to achieve energy access goals by 2030? 55
- 1.7.1 Access to electricity 56
- 1.7.2 Access to clean cooking 58
- 1.7.3 Investment needs to ramp up quickly 59
- 1.8 How to scale up clean energy investment in emerging market and developing economies? 61
- 1.8.1 Breaking down investment requirements 63
- 1.8.2 Challenge of scale 66
- Chapter 2. Setting the scene 67
- 2.1 Context for the World Energy Outlook-2024 69
- 2.1.1 Recent trends in energy demand and CO2 emissions 70
- 2.1.2 Macroeconomic context 73
- 2.1.3 Political and geopolitical uncertainties 75
- 2.2 WEO scenarios 78
- 2.2.1 Policies 79
- Energy and climate policies 80
- Support for energy investment and consumer energy affordability 82
- Industrial policies 83
- Policy uncertainty 85
- 2.2.2 GDP and population 87
- 2.2.3 Prices 90
- Oil 90
- Natural gas 91
- Coal 91
- Critical mineral prices 91
- Carbon prices 92
- Wholesale and retail prices 92
- 2.2.4 Technology costs 93
- Chapter 3. Pathways for the energy mix 97
- 3.1 Introduction 99
- 3.2 Overview 100
- 3.2.1 Energy efficiency 101
- 3.2.2 Renewables 103
- 3.3 Total final consumption 105
- 3.3.1 Transport 109
- 3.3.2 Buildings 113
- Can new global initiatives moderate fast-growing cooling demand? 116
- 3.3.3 Industry 118
- 3.4 Electricity 121
- 3.4.1 Electricity demand 122
- 3.4.2 Electricity supply 125
- 3.4.3 Power sector CO2 emissions 131
- 3.4.4 Power sector investment 132
- 3.5 Fuels 135
- 3.5.1 Oil 137
- Demand 138
- Supply 141
- Refining and trade 142
- 3.5.2 Natural gas 143
- Demand 144
- Supply and trade 146
- 3.5.3 Coal 149
- Demand 149
- Supply and trade 150
- Investment 152
- 3.5.4 Modern bioenergy 152
- Modern solid bioenergy 154
- Liquid biofuels 154
- Biogas and biomethane 154
- 3.6 Key clean energy technologies 155
- 3.6.1 Solar PV 156
- 3.6.2 Wind 157
- 3.6.3 Nuclear 158
- 3.6.4 Electric vehicles 159
- 3.6.5 Heat pumps 160
- 3.6.6 Hydrogen 161
- 3.6.7 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage 163
- Chapter 4. Exploring uncertainties in the 165
- 4.1 Introduction 167
- 4.2 Exploring the uncertainties 168
- Electric vehicles 168
- Renewables deployment 168
- LNG supply 168
- Electricity demand 169
- Uncertainties impact multiple energy sources 169
- 4.3 Sensitivity analyses relative to the STEPS trajectory 170
- 4.4 Uncertainties in oil demand 173
- 4.4.1 Electric vehicle pace of growth 173
- Slower EV growth, higher oil demand 174
- Faster EV growth, lower oil demand 175
- 4.4.2 PHEV in electric mode operation 176
- 4.4.3 Oil-to-gas switching in the Middle East power sector 177
- 4.5 Uncertainties in natural gas demand 178
- 4.5.1 LNG oversupply 179
- 4.5.2 Higher natural gas demand uncertainties 181
- 4.5.3 Lower natural gas demand uncertainties 184
- 4.6 Uncertainties in electricity demand 185
- 4.6.1 Data centres 186
- 4.6.2 Heat waves 189
- 4.6.3 Appliance efficiency in emerging market and developing economies 191
- Low appliance efficiency, high demand case 191
- High appliance efficiency, low demand case 191
- 4.6.4 Implications of changes in electricity demand 192
- Meeting higher electricity demand 192
- Meeting lower electricity demand 193
- Chapter 5. Security, affordability and sustainability 195
- 5.1 Introduction 197
- 5.2 Energy security 198
- 5.2.1 Fuel security 199
- Adequacy of oil and gas supply and investment 199
- Balancing investment in fossil fuels and clean energy 200
- Resilient and reliable fuel supply chains and infrastructure 201
- Co-ordinated infrastructure planning in transitions 205
- 5.2.2 Electricity security 207
- Adequacy 207
- Flexibility 209
- 5.2.3 Security of clean energy supply chains and critical minerals 213
- Clean energy manufacturing 213
- Critical minerals 216
- 5.3 Affordability and people-centred transitions 218
- 5.3.1 Energy bills 218
- 5.3.2 Energy employment 222
- 5.3.3 Energy access 225
- 5.3.4 Behavioural change 228
- 5.4 Sustainability 231
- 5.4.1 Emissions trajectories and temperature outcomes 231
- 5.4.2 Methane abatement 234
- 5.4.3 Air pollution and public health 237
- 5.5 Investment and finance 238
- 5.5.1 Energy investment 238
- Investment in the power sector 240
- 5.5.2 Sources of finance 242
- Chapter 6. Regional insights 245
- Introduction 247
- General notes related to key energy and emissions trends 247
- 6.1 United States 248
- Electricity demand in the United States is returning to strong growth, and renewable generation is set to increase even more qui 250
- 6.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 252
- Expanding role of bioenergy and low-emissions hydrogen 254
- 6.3 European Union 256
- Clean energy transitions offer an opportunity to reduce electricity costs 258
- 6.4 Africa 260
- Upside potential for critical minerals in Africa 262
- 6.5 Middle East 264
- Opportunities to accelerate clean energy deployment in the region 265
- 6.6 Eurasia 268
- Modernising the Caspian natural gas sector 270
- 6.7 China 272
- What is the outlook for electricity demand in China? 274
- 6.8 India 276
- Two/three-wheelers and buses lead the EV revolution in India 277
- 6.9 Japan and Korea 280
- Conventional and innovative technologies advance energy security and clean energy transitions 282
- 6.10 Southeast Asia 284
- How to tackle emissions from coal-fired power plants? 286
- Annexes 289
- Annex A: Tables for scenario projections 291
- General note to the tables 291
- Data sources 292
- Definitional note: Energy supply and transformation tables 292
- Definitional note: Energy demand tables 293
- Definitional note: Fossil fuel production and demand tables 293
- Definitional note: Electricity tables 293
- Definitional note: CO2 emissions tables 294
- Definitional note: Economic and activity indicators 294
- Definitional note: Hydrogen tables 294
- Annex A licencing 295
- Annex B: Design of the scenarios 327
- B.1 Population 328
- B.2 CO2 prices 329
- B.3 Fossil fuel resources 331
- B.4 Electricity generation technology costs 333
- B.5 Other key technology costs 337
- B.6 Policies 339
- Annex C: Definitions 355
- Units 355
- General conversion factors for energy 356
- Currency conversions 356
- Definitions 357
- Regional and country groupings 370
- Country notes 372
- Abbreviations and acronyms 373
- Annex D: References 377
- Executive Summary 377
- Chapter 1: Overview and key findings 377
- Chapter 2: Setting the scene 378
- Chapter 3: Pathways for the energy mix 380
- Chapter 4: Exploring uncertainties in the Outlook 381
- Chapter 5: Security, affordability and sustainability 382
- Chapter 6: Regional insights 385
- Annex B: Design of scenarios 386
- Annex E: Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model 389
- General note 389
- IEA databases and publications 389
- External databases and publications 390