The IEA's flagship World Energy Outlook , published every year, is the most authoritative global source of energy analysis and projections. It identifies and explores the biggest trends in energy demand and supply, as well as what they mean for energy security, emissions and economic development.
This year’s Outlook comes against a backdrop of escalating risks in the Middle East and heightened geopolitical tensions globally, and explores a range of energy security issues that decision makers face as they proceed with clean energy transitions. With rising investment of clean technologies and rapid growth in electricity demand, the WEO 2024 examines how far the world has come on its journey towards a safer and more sustainable energy system, and what more needs to be done to reach its climate goals.
Reflecting today’s uncertainties, our three main scenarios are complemented with sensitivity cases for renewables, electric mobility, liquefied natural gas and how heatwaves, efficiency policies and the rise of artificial intelligence might affect the outlook for electricity.
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Table of Contents
- Global Energy and Climate Model Documentation 2024 1
- Table of Contents 3
- List of figures 4
- List of tables 5
- List of boxes 6
- Section 1: Overview of model and scenarios 7
- 1.1 GEC Model scenarios 8
- Table 1.1 ⊳ Definitions and objectives of the GEC Model 2024 scenarios 8
- 1.1.1 Stated Policies Scenario 9
- 1.1.2 Announced Pledges Scenario 9
- 1.1.3 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario 10
- Box 1.1 ⊳ An integrated approach to energy and sustainable development in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario 11
- 1.2 Selected developments in 2024 11
- Cross-cutting 11
- Final energy consumption 12
- Electricity generation 13
- Energy supply 13
- Hydrogen 14
- Critical minerals 14
- Decomposition 14
- Household energy expenditure 14
- 1.3 GEC Model overview 14
- 1.3.1 Modelling methodology 14
- Figure 1.1 ⊳ Global Energy and Climate Model overview 15
- 1.3.2 Data inputs 16
- 1.3.3 Regional coverage and time horizon 17
- 1.3.4 Capabilities and features 17
- 1.3.5 Connections with the international energy modelling community 18
- Section 2: Cross-cutting inputs and assumptions 19
- 2.1 Population assumptions 19
- Table 2.1 ⊳ Population assumptions by region 19
- 2.2 Macroeconomic assumptions 20
- Table 2.2 ⊳ GDP average growth assumptions by region 20
- 2.3 Prices 21
- 2.3.1 International fossil fuel prices 21
- Table 2.3 ⊳ Fossil fuel prices by scenario 21
- 2.3.2 CO2 prices 22
- Table 2.4 ⊳ CO2 prices for electricity, industry and energy production in selected regions by scenario 22
- 2.3.3 End-user prices 23
- Fuel end-use prices 23
- Electricity end-use prices 23
- Figure 2.1 ⊳ Components of retail electricity end-use prices 23
- Fossil fuel subsidies 24
- 2.4 Policies 24
- 2.5 Techno-economic inputs 25
- Table 2.5 ⊳ Capital costs for selected technologies by scenario 26
- Section 3: End-use sectors 27
- Figure 3.1 ⊳ General structure of demand modules 27
- 3.1 Industry 27
- 3.1.1 Industry model coverage and approach 28
- Figure 3.2 ⊳ Major categories of technologies by end-use sub-sector in industry 28
- 3.1.2 Energy-intensive sub-sectors 29
- Figure 3.3 ⊳ Industry sector model internal module structure and key data flows 29
- 3.1.3 Non-energy-intensive sub-sectors 31
- 3.1.4 Industry sector investments 32
- 3.1.5 Input data 32
- 3.2 Transport 33
- 3.2.1 The historical database 33
- 3.2.2 The transport module 34
- Figure 3.4 ⊳ Structure of the transport demand module 34
- Road transport 35
- Figure 3.5 ⊳ Illustration of scrappage curve and mileage decay by vehicle type 36
- Figure 3.6 ⊳ The role of passenger-light-duty vehicle cost model 37
- Figure 3.7 ⊳ Illustration of an efficiency cost curve for road freight 38
- Figure 3.8 ⊳ Refuelling infrastructure cost curve (illustrative) 39
- Rail 40
- Aviation 40
- Shipping 41
- Figure 3.9 ⊳ Shipping model methodology 41
- Behavioural change analysis 42
- 3.3 Buildings 43
- Figure 3.10 ⊳ Structure of the buildings demand module 43
- Figure 3.11 ⊳ Major categories of technologies by end-use sub-sector in buildings 45
- Desalination 46
- Data centres 46
- Behavioural change 46
- 3.4 Hourly electricity demand and demand-side response 46
- Figure 3.12 ⊳ Thermosensitivity analysis for hourly load curve assessment 47
- Figure 3.13 ⊳ Illustrative load curves by sector for a weekday in February in the European Union compared to the observed load curve by ENTSO-E for 2014 48
- Section 4: Electricity generation and heat production 51
- 4.1 Electricity generation 51
- Figure 4.1 ⊳ Structure of the power generation module 51
- 4.1.1 Capacity additions 52
- 4.1.2 Generation volumes 53
- Figure 4.2 ⊳ Load-duration curve showing the four demand segments 53
- Figure 4.3 ⊳ Example merit order and its intersection with demand in the power generation module 54
- 4.1.3 Calculation of the capacity credit and capacity factor of variable renewables 54
- Figure 4.4 ⊳ Example electricity demand and residual load 55
- Figure 4.5 ⊳ Example of electricity demand and residual load 56
- 4.2 Value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity 56
- Figure 4.6 ⊳ Moving beyond the Levelised Cost of Electricity to the value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity 57
- Advantages and limitations of the value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity 58
- Financing costs for utility-scale solar PV 59
- 4.3 Electricity transmission and distribution networks 59
- Line replacement due to ageing infrastructure 59
- Line length expansion due to electricity demand growth 60
- Figure 4.7 ⊳ Electricity network expansion per unit of electricity demand growth by GDP per capita 60
- Line length expansion due to renewables 60
- Transformer capacity expansion due to electricity demand and supply growth 61
- Transformer replacement due to ageing 61
- Electricity network investment 61
- 4.4 Hourly models 63
- Modelling seasonal variability and long-term storage 64
- Assessing flexibility needs 64
- 4.5 Mini- and off-grid power systems 65
- 4.6 Renewables and combined heat and power modules 65
- 4.6.1 Combined heat and power and distributed generation 65
- 4.6.2 Renewable energy 65
- Box 4.1 ⊳ Long-term potential of renewables 66
- Wind offshore technical potential 66
- Data 66
- Exclusions 67
- Turbine designs 67
- 4.7 Hydrogen and ammonia in electricity generation 67
- 4.8 Battery storage 67
- Section 5: Other energy transformation 69
- 5.1 Oil refining and trade 69
- Figure 5.1 ⊳ Schematic of refining and international trade module 69
- 5.2 Coal-to-liquids, Gas-to-liquids, Coal-to-gas 70
- 5.3 Hydrogen production and supply 70
- Figure 5.2 ⊳ Schematic of merchant hydrogen supply module 71
- 5.4 Biofuel production 73
- 5.4.1 Liquid biofuel supply module 73
- Figure 5.3 ⊳ Schematic of liquid biofuels model 74
- 5.4.2 Biogas and biomethane supply module 75
- Section 6: Energy supply 77
- 6.1 Oil 77
- Box 6.1 ⊳ Methodological differences between the GEC Model and the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report 78
- Figure 6.1 ⊳ Structure of the oil supply module 79
- 6.1.1 US tight oil model 80
- Box 6.2 ⊳ Methodology to account for production decline in oil and gas fields 80
- 6.2 Natural gas 81
- 6.3 Coal 82
- Table 6.1 ⊳ Remaining technically recoverable fossil fuel resources, 2023 82
- 6.4 Bioenergy 83
- 6.4.1 Bioenergy supply module 83
- Biomass supply potentials by region 83
- Figure 6.3 ⊳ Schematic of biomass supply potentials 83
- Supply to meet demand 85
- Domestic supply 85
- Global trade 85
- Collaboration 85
- Section 7: Critical minerals 87
- Scope 87
- Table 7.1 ⊳ Critical minerals in scope 87
- 7.1 Demand 88
- 7.2 Primary and secondary supply projections 88
- 7.2.1 Primary supply projections 88
- 7.2.2 Secondary supply projections 88
- Section 8: Emissions 91
- 8.1 CO2 emissions 91
- 8.2 Methane emissions 91
- 8.3 Other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions 92
- 8.4 Air pollution 92
- 8.5 Global temperature impacts 92
- Section 9: Energy and CO2 decomposition 93
- Section 10: Investment 95
- 10.1 Investment in fuel supply and the power sector 95
- 10.1.1 Short-term oil and natural gas upstream investment 95
- Table 10.1 ⊳ Sub-sectors and assets included in fuel supply investment 96
- 10.1.2 Long-term investment in fuel supply 96
- 10.1.3 Power sector investment 96
- Table 10.2 ⊳ Sub-sectors and assets included in power sector investment 97
- 10.2 Demand-side investments 97
- Table 10.3 ⊳ Sub-sectors and assets included in end-use energy investment 98
- 10.3 Financing for investments 98
- 10.3.1 Sources of finance 98
- 10.3.2 Cost of finance 99
- Section 11: Energy access 101
- 11.1 Definition of modern energy access 101
- 11.2 Outlook for modern energy access 102
- Outlook for electricity access 102
- Outlook for clean cooking access 102
- Section 12: Employment 103
- 12.1 Definition and scope of employment 103
- Categorisation by value chain step 103
- Categorisation by asset life stage 104
- Categorisation by skill level 104
- Table 12.1 ⊳ Skill levels of employment estimates by associated education levels and occupations 104
- 12.2 Estimating current employment 105
- Estimating job multipliers 105
- Gathering employment data 105
- Allocating employment across global supply chains 106
- 12.3 Outlook for employment 106
- Modelling labour productivity improvements 106
- Timing employment for new projects in the pipeline 106
- Section 13: Government spending on clean energy and energy affordability 107
- 13.1 Policy identification and collection 107
- Government spending policies towards clean energy technologies 107
- Energy crisis response policies 108
- Collection process 108
- 13.2 Assessing the impact on overall clean energy investment 109
- 13.2.1 Assessing mobilisation factors for clean energy investment support 109
- 13.2.2 Determining implementation timelines 109
- Section 14: Household energy expenditures analysis 111
- 14.1 Definitions and coverage 111
- 14.2 Input data 111
- 14.3 Methodology 112
- Figure 14.1 ⊳ Overview of affordability analysis methodology applied at each GEC Model region level 112
- 14.4 Results 113
- Definitions 115
- Regional and country groupings 123
- Figure A.1 ⊳ GEC Model regional groupings 124
- Country notes 125
- 14.4.1 Fossil fuel supply regions 125
- Oil and natural gas supply module regions 125
- Coal supply module regions 126
- Acronyms 126
- Annex A: Terminology 115
- Definitions 115
- Regional and country groupings 123
- Acronyms 126
- Annex B: References 131