Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine

John Lough

After two and a half years of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, there are now four main possible scenarios for its outcome: ‘Long war’ – An attritional conflict that tests each side’s limits.‘Frozen conflict’ – An armistice that would stabilize the front line where it is.‘Victory for Ukraine’ – A Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of 23 February 2022.‘Defeat for Ukraine’ – Ukraine’s acceptance of Russian terms of surrender (change of government, demilitarization, neutrality) and territorial losses. Five variables will determine the nature of any peace arrangement acceptable to Ukraine: how much territory the country will control; the extent of economic damage; the level of population loss; the level of security it can maintain; and the level of required investment in its defence to deter further aggression. The strategic challenge that will confront Ukraine when martial law is lifted is whether it will be able to maintain sufficient unity and resolve to strengthen its institutions and create the level of economic growth needed to recover and defend itself against future attack. The sociological, economic and political consequences of the war will make this task particularly difficult regardless of which scenario materializes.