Sea Ice Outlook  2020 August Report  Individual Outlook

To be consistent with the validating sea ice extent index from  NSIDC, if possible, please first compute the average sea ice concentration for the month  and then compute the extent as the sum of cell areas > 15%. [...] The 2007-2019 average daily rates are used to estimate the official  submitted estimate.   The predicted September average extent for 2020 is 3.93 (┬¼┬▒0.36) million square  kilometers, which is a substantial decrease from the July estimate of 4.44 million square  kilometers. [...] The minimum daily extent is predicted to be 3.81 (┬¼┬▒0.37) million square  kilometers, a decrease from Julys 4.32 million square kilometers and occurs on 14 September.  The range of estimates has decreased (┬¼┬▒0.36) due to the shorter remainder of the melt  season. [...] Thus, there is a  roughly a 2 in 15 (13%) of a new record September extent in the Arctic  Using the same method, the predicted Antarctic average extent for September 2020 is 18.09  (┬¼┬▒0.30) million square kilometers. [...] The method essentially provides the range of September extents that can be  expected based on how the ice has declined in past years, though it is possible that record fast or  slow daily loss rates may yield a value outside the projected range.