90% of Harris voters, versus 57% of Trump voters, are confident the 2024 election will be administered well.
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Table of Contents
- About Pew Research Center 2
- How we did this 3
- Most voters are confident that elections will be run well but more skepticism among Trump than Harris supporters 4
- Wide partisan gaps in election confidence since 2020 5
- Partisan gap in views of election administration is about as wide as in 2022 somewhat wider than in 2020 5
- Harris Trump supporters differ on whether votes will be counted accurately 6
- Related 6
- Wide gap in confidence that absentee ballots will be counted accurately most Harris Trump supporters are very or somewhat confident in local poll workers 6
- Voters views of illegal voting access to voting 7
- Trump backers far less confident than Harris backers that the election will have a clear winner after all votes are counted 7
- Do voters think election systems in the U.S. are safe from hacking 8
- Harris voters far more confident than Trump voters that U.S. election systems are secure from technological threats 8
- A smaller share of voters plan to cast ballots by mail compared with 2020. 9
- Trump backers who plan to vote by mail are more confident that mail-in ballots will be counted accurately. 9
- Harris voters more than twice as likely as Trump voters to plan to vote by mail 9
- Most voters are not confident the Supreme Court would be politically neutral if it had to resolve legal challenges related to the 2024 election. 10
- Just 1 in 5 voters are highly confident the Supreme Court would be politically neutral in decisions about the 2024 election 10
- 1. Views of election administration and confidence in vote counts 11
- Harris voters are more positive than Trump voters in their predictions about national election administration 11
- Expectations of election administration across the U.S. are more positive than in 2020 less positive than in 2018 11
- Harris strong supporters are most likely to say U.S. elections will be run very well Trumps strong supporters are least likely to say this 12
- Widespread confidence in election administration locally 13
- Voters largely expect election administration in their own community will go well 13
- Confidence in poll workers and state election officials has declined among GOP voters 14
- In Democratic-controlled but not GOP-controlled states wide gaps between Harris and Trump backers confidence in state election officials 16
- Most Trump and Harris backers say the other party isnt committed to ensuring fair and accurate elections 17
- Harris supporters express far more confidence than Trump supporters that vote counts will be accurate particularly counts of absentee and mail-in ballots 19
- Mail and absentee voters are more confident than other voters in mail-in vote counts 20
- Confidence in absentee vote counts is higher among those who will vote by mail than those voting in person and the gap is particularly wide among Trump supporters 20
- 2. Confidence in voting access and integrity expectations for whether and when the election results will be clear 21
- Wide majorities of voters say it is very or somewhat important that 21
- Ballot access and voter intimidation 21
- Ensuring voting access blocking voter intimidation are widely viewed as important smaller majorities of voters are confident these things will happen 21
- A clear winner and timely outcome 22
- But Trump supporters are much less likely than Harris supporters to express confidence that it will be clear who won. 22
- Most voters say its important that it will be clear who won after all votes are counted Trump supporters are less confident than Harris backers this will happen 22
- Ensuring only eligible citizens cast ballots 23
- Harris supporters are far more confident than Trump supporters that people who are not legally qualified to vote will be prevented from voting. 23
- About 9 in 10 Harris supporters are confident that noncitizens will be stopped from voting compared with only about a third of Trump supporters 23
- How voters views today compare with opinions in 2020 24
- Harris supporters are somewhat more confident that eligible voters will be able to cast ballots than Biden supporters were in 2020 24
- More voters say its important to know election outcome quickly than said this in 2020 voters also more confident that the winner will be known quickly 25
- 3. American voters expectations for voting this year 26
- Trump supporters are more likely than Harris supporters to plan to vote in person while Harris supporters are more than twice as likely as Trump supporters to plan to vote by mail. 26
- Most voters say they will vote in person at polling places but Harris supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to say theyll vote absentee 26
- Expectations about ease of voting on par with 2022 28
- How demographic groups view voting 29
- White voters more likely to say voting will be easy than Black Hispanic voters 29
- Acknowledgments 30
- Methodology 31
- Overview 31
- Panel recruitment 31
- Sample design 32
- Questionnaire development and testing 32
- Incentives 33
- Data collection protocol 33
- For panelists who take surveys online 33
- Invitation and reminder dates for web respondents ATP Wave 156 33
- For panelists who take surveys over the phone with a live interviewer 33
- Data quality checks 34
- Weighting 34
- American Trends Panel weighting dimensions 34
- Sample sizes and margins of error ATP Wave 156 35
- Dispositions and response rates 36
- Final dispositions ATP Wave 156 36
- Cumulative response rate ATP Wave 156 36
- Validated voters Nonvoters 37
