The likelihood of shared power in the Commonwealth parliament has increased as the major party vote has declined significantly since the end of World War 2, and the 2022 election marked the lowest combined vote for the two largest parties since the Great Depression. [...] Under the Australian Constitution, the executive government is decided by the composition of the lower house, but the passage of new laws requires the support of the Senate. [...] The influence of crossbenchers can be seen in legislation protecting the Franklin River from damming in the 1980s, AusAID prohibitions on funding family planning in the 1990s and 2000s, the passage of the GST and the National Anti- Corruption Commission legislated last year. [...] The number of crossbenchers in the federal Senate also reached record numbers during the 2010s: the 2016 election returned a record 20 crossbenchers to sit in the Australian Senate, a reflection of the proportional representation system used and the lower threshold for a double-dissolution election. [...] This necessitates a more mature and nuanced analysis of both electoral outcomes and the contribution of crossbenchers and their roles, just as the electoral success of the Labor Party in the 1890s and 1900s forced the political class to reckon with the political labour movement.
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Table of Contents
- ABOUT THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE 2
- OUR PHILOSOPHY 2
- OUR PURPOSE RESEARCH THAT MATTERS 2
- Contents 3
- Summary 5
- Won by crossbencher 6
- Won by major party 6
- Introduction 8
- The role of crossbenchers 11
- Major party vote share has fallen 14
- Crossbenchers can win elections with lower primary vote shares 15
- Existing prediction models do not account for new entrants 18
- The Mackerras pendulum 19
- Won by crossbencher 19
- Won by major party 19
- Independents in Australia and other similar democracies 21
- Australia is unusual in having many independents 21
- Other Australian jurisdictions 23
- Other notable jurisdictions 25
- Successful independents encourage other independents 26
- Types of power sharing government 27
- Coalition government 27
- Minority government 28
- Non-party ministers in majority governments 29
- Non-government speaker in the lower house 29
- Crossbench balance of power in the upper house 29
- POWER SHARING GOVERNMENTS ARE COMMON 30
- Conclusion 31
- Appendix 1 2022 election 32
- Other notable electorates 33
