Understanding the Revolving Door of Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism

The US criminal justice system is commonly referred to as a revolving door due to its high rates of recidivism--the tendency of people convicted of crimes to face more criminal charges in the future. A key question for policymakers is whether the criminal justice system itself contributes to this pattern or whether it is driven by external factors such as addiction, mental health, neighborhood disadvantage, or limited labor market opportunities. Previous research on the role of contact with the criminal justice system has focused primarily on how incarceration affects recidivism. However, noncarceral conviction (i.e., a conviction that does not result in incarceration) is also a frequent outcome. In 2010, 2.7 people were on probation for every person who was incarcerated. Noncarceral convictions could affect recidivism in several ways. For example, a conviction could make it harder to find employment, making a person more likely to resort to crime. A conviction could also make future contact with the criminal justice system more severe, even if it has no impact on criminal behavior. For example, prosecutors may be more likely to pursue charges against someone with a recent conviction, and judges may sentence them more harshly. Conversely, a conviction could deter crime if it increases the expected penalties for future crime.