What do we need to know about the swing state of Arizona?

Once again, Arizona is a swing state in the presidential election. In previous elections, including the hotly contested 2020 presidential election, Democratic candidates won top-of-the-ticket races against controversial Republican candidates, but lower-level contests remained firmly in Republican hands. So, what can a political history of Arizona tell us about what may happen in November? Let's start with geography. Election outcomes in Arizona often are determined by Phoenix and its suburbs (e.g. Maricopa County) where its 2.4 million voters comprise 59% of Arizona's registered voters. The Phoenix metro area, once considered strongly Republican, now has pockets of Democratic support. Pima County, home to Tucson, is the second-largest county (at 15% of Arizona voters) and tends to favor Democratic candidates. While the remaining 13 mostly rural counties are viewed as conservative and Republican-leaning, there are exceptions. In Santa Cruz County with a mostly Latino population and Apache County with a mostly Native American population, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans.