Navigating Trump 2.0: Making Canada Indispensable in its Relationship with America

It remains a toss-up whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes the next U.S. president. Both candidates have shifted nearly all their focus to battleground states, where polls indicate Harris may have gained a razor thin advantage. However, this should not lull Canadian decision-makers into complacency. If Trump does retake the presidency – still a real possibility – seismic changes lay ahead. Trump and his MAGA supporters are feverishly honing a domineering agenda to assert their will regarding America’s interests. A second Trump presidency would likely once again upend America’s relationship with allies, partners, and rivals, reshaping geopolitics and global trade – possibly for a generation to come. As a contingency measure, Ottawa has revived its so-called Team Canada approach to diplomacy with the U.S. The strategy was conceived during NAFTA renegotiations that began in August 2017. It worked reasonably well, benefitting from how the Trump administration — then less than eight months old — was still finding its feet. That won’t be the case this time if Trump triumphs in November. Canada has a lot at stake in the years ahead. Paradigm shifts in the global economy and security architecture are underway, as autocratic states are sensing opportunity. Compounding risks from these changes are rapid technological disruptions and the mounting effects of climate change. Amid all of this, it's important to remember that few nations have benefitted as much from globalization and America’s security umbrella over the past decades as ours. However, these benefits could ebb away should Trump return to power. To effectively protect and advance its interests against a more visceral America First administration, Canada must regain conviction to interpose its indispensability to the U.S. while also recapturing a sense of self-confidence to challenge or disagree with America’s geopolitical actions when they go against Canadian interests and values.