Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment

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Table of Contents

• About This Report 3
• About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center 3
• Acknowledgments 4
• Project Team 4
• Summary 7
• Key Findings 7
• Recommendations 11
• Contents 13
• Figures and Tables 15
• Figures 15
• Tables 15
• Introduction 17
• Scope of the Study 17
• Methods 18
• Organization of the Report 18
• What Are Catastrophic Risk and Existential Risk 21
• Accounts of Existential Risks 21
• Academic Accounts 21
• Policy Institution Accounts 22
• Differing Interpretations of Human Extinction 23
• Global Catastrophic Risk 23
• Global Catastrophic Risk in the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act 23
• The Role of Civilization Collapse 24
• Alternative Accounts of Global Catastrophic Risk 25
• Related Risk Concepts 25
• National-Level Risk 26
• Systemic Risk 26
• Emerging Risk 26
• Polycrisis 26
• Disproportionate Risks 27
• Perceptions of Global Catastrophic Risks and Their Importance 27
• Perceptions of Risk 28
• Ethical Perspectives on Global Catastrophic Risk 29
• Utilitarianism 30
• Arguments Against Utilitarianism 30
• Alternatives to Utilitarianism 31
• A Way Ahead 32
• Risk Frameworks and Approach 33
• The Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act Risk Assessment Framework 33
• Global Catastrophic Risks and Uncertainty 36
• Why We Do Not Focus on Probabilities 37
• Risk Management Frameworks 38
• Framework for Managing Technology-Induced Risks 38
• International Risk Governance Council Framework 39
• Supervolcanoes Summary of Risk 43
• What Is Known About the Causes of Risk from Supervolcanoes 44
• What Is a Supervolcano 44
• What Are the Mechanisms of a Supervolcano Catastrophe 45
• Local Short-Term Effects 45
• Global Longer-Term Effects 49
• What Are the Risks from Supervolcanoes 51
• What Is the Likelihood of a Supereruption 51
• What Are the Effects of Continental Supervolcano Eruptions in the Short Term 52
• Consequences Mortality 53
• Consequences Ecosystem Instability 53
• Consequences Societal Instability 54
• Consequences Reduced Human Capabilities 54
• What Are the Effects of Continental Supervolcano Eruptions in the Longer Term 54
• Consequences Mortality 55
• Consequences Ecosystem Instability 55
• Consequences Societal Instability 56
• Consequences Reduced Human Capabilities 56
• Notable Differences for Submarine Eruptions 56
• How Will the Risk from Supervolcanoes Change in the Next Decade 57
• What Has Been and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Supervolcanoes 57
• Reduce the Probability or Severity of Supereruptions 57
• Reduce the Consequences of Supereruptions 58
• Summary 59
• Asteroid or Comet Impact Summary of Risk 61
• What Is Known About the Causes of Risk from Asteroid and Comet Impacts 62
• What Are the Risks from Asteroid and Comet Impacts 63
• Consequences Mortality 64
• Consequences Ecosystem Instability 67
• Consequences Societal Instability 67
• Economic and Infrastructure Disruption 67
• Governance Disruption 67
• Uncertainty and Timing of Risk from Asteroid and Comet Impacts 68
• How Will the Risk from Asteroid and Comet Impacts Change in the Next Decade 69
• What Has Been and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Asteroid and Comet Impacts 71
• Detection and Tracking 74
• Characterization and Assessment 74
• In-Space Mitigation 74
• Terrestrial Preparation 75
• Summary 76
• Severe Pandemics Summary of Risk 79
• What Is the Risk from Pandemics 80
• What Is Known About the Causes of Risk from Pandemics 82
• The Three Causes of Risk 82
• Understanding the Risk and Complexity of a Synthetic Pandemic 85
• Uncertainty of Risk from Pandemics 86
• How the Risk from Pandemics Will Evolve 90
• Conclusions on the Risk of a Pandemic 93
• What Has Been and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Pandemics 93
• Summary 94
• Rapid and Severe Climate Change Summary of Risk 97
• What Is Known About the Causes of Risk from Rapid and Severe Climate Change 98
• Effect Pathways 98
• Thresholds for Abrupt and Severe Climate Change 100
• Probabilities of Rapid and Severe Climate Change 102
• What Is the Risk from Rapid and Severe Climate Change 105
• Consequences Mortality 105
• Consequences Ecosystem Instability 106
• Consequences Societal Instability 108
• Consequences Reduced Human Capabilities 111
• How the Risk from Extreme Climate Change Will Change in the Next Decade 113
• What Has Been and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Extreme Climate Change 114
• Summary 115
• Nuclear War Summary of Risk 117
• What Is Known About the Causes of Risk from Nuclear War 118
• How Nuclear Weapons Cause Damage 118
• Where Nuclear Weapons Detonate Matters 118
• Some Nuclear Weapons Can Be Specialized 119
• Nuclear War Could Lead to Nuclear Winter 119
• Nuclear War Is Unlikely to Pose a Risk of Human Extinction 120
• What Is the Risk from Nuclear War 121
• Consequences Mortality 122
• Consequences Societal Instability 122
• Governance Disruption 122
• Economic and Infrastructure Destruction 123
• Consequences Ecosystem Instability 123
• Reduced Human Capabilities 123
• Uncertainty and Timing of Risk from Nuclear War 124
• Probabilistic Aspects of Nuclear Risk 124
• Temporal Aspects of Nuclear Risk 126
• How Will the Risk from Nuclear War Change in the Next Decade 126
• What Has and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Nuclear War 127
• Summary 128
• Artificial Intelligence Summary of Risk 129
• What Do We Mean by Artificial Intelligence 130
• How Can Artificial Intelligence Amplify Catastrophic Risks 131
• Artificial Intelligence Can Supply Enabling Information to Malicious Actors 131
• Artificial Intelligence Systems Are Prone to Specification Failures 132
• Artificial Intelligence Systems Are Prone to Robustness Failures 133
• Artificial Intelligence Could Open the Door to Adversarial Attacks 133
• Artificial Intelligence Errors Can Be Difficult to Detect and Correct 134
• How Quickly Will Artificial Intelligence Improve 136
• What Is the Risk from Artificial Intelligence 136
• Nuclear War 136
• Pandemics 137
• Environmental Damage 138
• Disruption of Social Governance Economic and Critical Infrastructure Systems 139
• Global Human Disempowerment 140
• Uncertainty and Timing of Risk from Artificial Intelligence 141
• How Will the Risk from Artificial Intelligence Change in the Next Decade 142
• What Has Been and Could Be Done to Manage Risk from Artificial Intelligence 142
• Summary 144
• From Assessment to Management of Global Catastrophic or Extinction-Level Risk 145
• Trends in Global Catastrophic and Existential Risk 147
• Trends Affecting Individual Global Catastrophic Risks 147
• Common Factors Affecting All Six Sources of Global Catastrophic Risk 148
• Advances in Technology Create Peril and Offer Promise 149
• Lacking Immature and Uncoordinated Governance Increases Global Catastrophic Risks 149
• Failure to Advance Individual and Societal Development Exacerbates Instability 149
• Interactions Among Risks Also Influence the Potential for Global and Existential Catastrophes 150
• The Geographic Extent of Consequences and Quality of Evidence About Risks Offer Guidance for Appropriate Risk Management Strategies 151
• Variation in Geographic Extent of Threat and Hazard Consequences 151
• Variation in Understanding of Threats and Hazards 152
• Aligning Risk Management to the Nature of Specific Hazards 153
• Risk Management and Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks 154
• Preventing the Effect 154
• Reducing Consequences of Effect 156
• Three Types of Risk Mitigation Efforts Taking Action Governing and Learning 156
• Recommendations 158
• Literature Search Strategy 161
• Glossary 173
• Works Cited by Chapter 175
• About This Report 175
• Summary 175
• Chapter 1 175
• Chapter 2 176
• Chapter 3 178
• Chapter 4 179
• Chapter 5 182
• Chapter 6 184
• Chapter 7 186
• Chapter 8 194
• Chapter 9 197
• Chapter 10 203
• Abbreviations 205
• References 207