Whereas the holding of elections in authoritarian and hybrid regimes has aggravated the challenge, the problem is not restricted to the Global South or to weakly consolidated democracies, as recent episodes of electoral violence in the United States, Brazil, Turkey, and Hungary remind us. [...] The first indicator is the Election Government Intimidation (v2elintim), measuring the extent to which the government uses intimidation and harassment to influence the outcome of elections. [...] Our indicator for the level of electoral violence is calculated by collapsing the original scale of the two indicators into three categories: no electoral violence, for elections where the indicator has the value 3 or higher; moderate electoral violence, for elections where the indicator is in the range 1.5-3, and severe electoral violence for elections where the indicator is smaller than 1.5. [...] The final ensemble weights were then used to combine the predictions of the constituent models to make the final forecasts for 2024 and 2025 so that the predicted probability of each election violence level is the weighted average of each constituent model’s predicted probability. [...] The prediction of electoral violence specifically is a challenging task due to the complexity of the phenomenon and the multitude of factors that can influence its occurrence (Birch, Daxecker, and Höglund, 2020; Höglund, 2009; Birch and Muchlinski, 2018).
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- Pages
- 31
- Published in
- Sweden
Table of Contents
- WP_front page_wp150.pdf 1
- 1st Page_Info about V-Dem 2024.pdf 2
- electoral_violence_vdem_wp.pdf 3
- Introduction 5
- Electoral Violence 6
- Prediction target 7
- Methods 8
- Training and Evaluation 9
- Performance metrics 10
- Ensembling by genetic algorithm 11
- Final ensembles for true forecasts 12
- Results 13
- Out-of-sample evaluation 13
- Forecasts for 2024–2025 15
- Case examples, 2024 16
- Venezuela 17
- India 17
- United States 18
- Discussion 19
