WINNING THE WAR WITH RUSSIA (IS STILL POSSIBLE) THE WEST’S COUNTER-STRATEGY

Marek Menkiszak; Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich

The third phase (over the next 15 years at least) would aim to achieve 5 OSW REPORT 10/2024 the strategic defeat of the Russian regime through systematic pressure, the deepening of long-term trends unfavourable to Moscow, and the strength- ening and correction of the global order. [...] The Ukrainian-Russian talks were halted for two main reasons: firstly, the fail- ure of the critical initial phase of the Russian aggression aimed at capturing Kyiv (Ukraine’s sole motivation for engaging in talks at the time was to prevent the annihilation of the Ukrainian state in the face of a significant military imbalance favouring Moscow and very limited military support from the West at th. [...] The strategic consequences of implementing this vision would be the collapse of NATO, at least a weakening of the European Union, particularly in the security sphere, the severing of transatlantic ties, and the expulsion of US presence and influ- ence from Europe. [...] In the most ambitious scenario, Russia sought to take control of the entire eastern part of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnipro River and the southern part up to the border with Moldova. [...] This has led, on the one hand, to a psycho- logical normalisation of the wartime situation and, on the other, to a growing number of people viewing war as a means of material advancement.34 The key to political stability in Russia, however, is not the mood of the masses but the views and attitudes of the political and business elites.