Climate risk storylines: Navigating the uncertainties of climate change - Guidelines for humanitarian practitioners

This is combined with the risks many communities face relating to contexts of fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) • The Climate Centre was commissioned by the United Kingdom’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) to develop a storyline-based approach to produce an alternative understanding of the how the interactions between ENSO, IOD and climate change will impact the region acro. [...] How? The research applied a climate-risk storylines approach to understand the likely implications of a complex combination of the interplay between El Niño phase of ENSO and the IOD on the socio- economic elements of health, mobility, trade, and security. [...] Through identifying historical climate patterns and exploring the impacts on the human security of populations across the lenses of inquiry (health, trade, mobility and security), it was possible to see the foundations of cross-disciplinary collaboration between the scientific, quantitative approach and social, qualitative narrative-based understandings. [...] The figure below depicts the foundations of this approach for the Mandalay region of Myanmar, showing the basis of a longer, more nuanced analysis which then led to the creation of a series of causal maps. [...] Storylines as outputs that form the foundation for other climate-oriented action One of the interesting elements of this project is that the storylines and climate profiles produced can act as building blocks to support wider adoption of the ICRC climate framework and progressing the organization towards more climate-oriented action.