The Country Climate and Development Report assesses how Poland can reap the benefits of faster decarbonization while reducing its vulnerability to climate shocks. Accelerating decarbonization is in Poland’s economic interest. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will add an average 0.2 percent of GDP a year, leading to a cumulative 4 percent gain by 2050. At the same time, the reduction in air pollution brought about by decarbonization can lead to additional gains in terms of labor productivity and avoided mortality. A comprehensive transformation of the energy system is crucial to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This will entail removing barriers to renewable penetration, strengthening Poland’s transmission and distribution grid, using natural gas uniquely as transition technology, scaling up electricity trade, and repurposing current coal subsidies to mitigation of social end economic impacts in affected, vulnerable communities. Decarbonizing energy supply is also critical to cut the private sector’s carbon emissions to maintain competitiveness as global low-carbon efforts accelerate. Increasing carbon sinks and limiting emissions in the agricultural sector and are vital for Poland’s green transition. Polish forests store 10% of all EU forest carbon and more than a decade of the country’s emissions. But their sink role has been declining. Rehabilitating forestry sinks will require improved forestry management and expansion of forest areas through the conversion of marginal, underutilized and low-productivity agricultural land. Resilience investments will be needed to lessen the impact of climate shocks. Despite its relatively favorable geography, Poland is not immune from increased temperatures and more severe and frequent floods and droughts. In the absence of adaptation investments, impacts on infrastructure, agriculture and labor productivity could lead to GDP losses of 1.2% by 2050. Relatively modest resilience investments (equivalent to 0.1% of GDP) in sectors including agriculture, water, forestry and transport over the next 25 years can reduce the economic costs of climate shocks almost fully by 2050, and by half a decade earlier. For Poland, achieving prosperity in changing climate is affordable and within reach. But with the set of key policies and investments requiring implementation between 2025 and 2035, clear policy direction and effective implementation in the short term will be crucial to achieve the country’s decarbonization and resilience objectives by mid century.
Authors
- Citation
- “ World Bank Group . 2024 . Poland Country Climate and Development Report . CCDR Series . © Washington, DC: World Bank . http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42286 License: CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO . ”
- Collection(s)
- Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1596/42286
- Pages
- 170
- Published in
- United States of America
- Region country
- Poland
- RelationisPartofseries
- CCDR Series
- Rights
- CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
- Rights Holder
- World Bank
- Rights URI
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/
- URI
- https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42286
- date disclosure
- 2024-11-05
- region administrative
- Europe and Central Asia
Files
Table of Contents
- COUNTRY CLIMATE 3
- AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT 3
- POLAND 3
- Table of Contents 5
- Acknowledgments 9
- Abbreviations 11
- Executive Summary 13
- 2. Achieving NZ2050 will require substantial investments in expanding carbon sinks and a comprehensive transformation of the energy system 16
- 3. Targeted adaptation investments can protect people and firms and preserve the GDP gains derived from full decarbonization 19
- 4. Households and labor markets impacts will be geographically and sectorally differentiated 21
- 5. The transition brings significant private sector opportunities but readiness lags 24
- 6. Enhancing resilience and fully decarbonizing the economy calls for significant investments but will deliver net gains 25
- 7. Easing the political economy constraints to the transition 28
- Chapter 1 31
- Polands Prosperity in a Changing Climate 31
- 1.1. Securing competitiveness and inclusion in a decarbonizing world 32
- 1.2. Climate proofing Polands economy and society 36
- Chapter 2 39
- Policies and Institutions 39
- 2.1. Closing the climate policy gap 40
- 2.2. Policies and institutions for private sector action 42
- 2.3. Institutional barriers to climate-oriented reform and investments 45
- Chapter 3 49
- Decarbonization and Resilience 49
- 3.1. A net zero economy by 2050 50
- 3.2. Shielding the economy and citizens from climate risks 66
- Chapter 4 75
- Growth Finance and Inclusion 75
- 4.1. Shaping a competitive economy and a just transition 76
- 4.2. Protecting and preparing people 83
- 4.3. Financing the transition 91
- Chapter 5 99
- Recommended Policies and Investments for the Transition 99
- Annexes 109
- Annex 1. Selecting Climate Scenarios 110
- Annex 2. Macroeconomic Modeling and Assumptions 112
- Annex 3. Modeling Climatic Shocks and Adaptation 114
- Annex 4. Methodology of the World Banks Poland Energy System Model 120
- Annex 5. Assessing the Impacts of Decarbonization on Polands Air Quality 122
- Annex 6. Mitigation and Adaptation Investments by Decade 127
- Endnotes 128
- References 139
