Senegal - Country Climate and Development Report : Annex 6 (English)

The impacts of climate change are already evident in Senegal (box 1.1 ) and are projected to worsen in the future with increased temperatures, greater variability, and extreme events, as well as rising sea level. Temperatures are predicted to rise between 1.05°C and 1.15°C by 2050 and up to 1.85°C to 4.5°C by 2090 (in reference to 2005, comparing Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5),7 with higher temperatures and more temperature extremes projected over eastern and southern Senegal. In the more intense climate change scenario, this could include up to more than two months (65 more days than in 2005) of very hot days by 2050, and more than four months by 2090 (140 more days more days than in 2005). While climate projections across models are not consistent for precipitation, given the high naturalyear-to-year variability, more intense climate change scenarios suggest an overall drier future for Senegal and a further increase in variability, with future dry and wet periods likely to become more extreme. Finally, the sea level off the coast of Senegal is projected to rise, and at a faster pace than it did up to now (at least twice). In the more intense climate change scenario, sea level is thus expected to rise as much as 18 cm by 2030, 60 cm by 2050, and over 1m by 2100 (over 2000 levels), conservatively.