Errors Mar Report That Claims Mass Deportation Cuts the Debt

Just before the election, the Manhattan Institute (MI) released a report titled "Lifetime Fiscal Impact of Immigrants." MI claims that the recent surge in immigration under President Biden will cost the federal government $1.15 trillion over the lifetimes of these new immigrants and that "mass deportations would significantly reduce the national debt." Expect this analysis to be cited by the incoming Trump administration. Today, the Cato Institute has published my response as a working paper, detailing serious errors that, when corrected, reverse MI's central conclusion. In fact, after corrections, MI's model predicts enormous fiscal benefits from the recent influx of illegal immigrants: a deficit reduction of $4.9 trillion over the immigrants' lives. This is consistent with the recent findings of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).