Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young.
Authors
- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- We thank Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Luis Baldomero-Quintana, Lorenzo Caliendo, Kerem Cosar, Mario Crucini, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Dave Donaldson, Jackson Howell, David Hummels, Douglas Irwin, Beata Javorcik, Brian Kovak, James Lake, Peter McHenry, John McLaren, Emily Moschini, Luca Opromolla, John Parman, Peter Schott, Mine Senses, Brandon Sheridan, Haruka Takayama, Daniel (Yi) Xu, and Tom Zylkin for helpful suggestions and discussions of this draft. We also thank conference participants at the NBER Summer Institute, the ETOS, the Mid-Atlantic Trade Workshop, SEA Annual Meetings, as well as seminar participants at Appalachian State University, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State University, Southern Methodist University, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, T.E.A.M., University at Albany, U.C. Davis, University of Hawaii, University of Massachusetts - Lowell, and Yale University. All errors are our own. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from an Upjohn Institute ECRA grant as well NSF Award #2314696. This manuscript was previously circulated under the title “Trade Policy as an Exogenous Shock: Focusing on the Specifics.” First version June 16, 2021 https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/246063/1/21-349.pdf The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w33127
- Pages
- 79
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- Introduction 3
- Empirical Approach: Tariffs, Inflation, and Changes in Realized Protection 9
- Imports, Tariffs, and Prices in the U.S. from 1900-1940 12
- Prices, 1900-1940 16
- US Import Growth and Changes in Realized Protection 17
- Placebo Exercises: UK Imports and The Morrill Tariff of 1861 21
- Persistence of Specific Tariffs 25
- Import Growth and Structural Change 27
- Import Growth and Labor Market Outcomes 29
- Effects Throughout the Age Distribution 32
- Sectoral Transitions 34
- Conclusion 36
- Industry Classification 43
- Data Sources and Variable Construction 47
- US Tariff and Import Data, 1900-1940 47
- US Import and Tariff Data, 1848-1861 50
- Morrill Tariff Duties and Specific Tariff Share 50
- UK Import Data and Unit Value Construction, 1900-1938 52
- Industry Import Growth Descriptives and Robustness 56
- Import Growth and Elasticity 58
- Estimating Effects During Inflation and Deflation Separately 62
- Additional Summary Statistics and Industry Robustness 64
- Price Forecasting 65
- Labor Market Descriptives and Robustness 67
- Robustness of Linked Labor Market Outcomes 70
- County Level Labor Market Analysis 75
