Indian Solar PV Exports Surging 2

Table of Contents

• Figures and Tables 2
• Figure 1: PV Exports from India – Annual Trend 6 2
• Figure 2: Exports by Leading Domestic PV Manufacturers in FY2024 7 2
• Figure 3: Indian PV Exports to the US vis-à-vis Rest of the World 9 2
• Figure 4: Indian PV Exports’ Annual Trend, Destination Region/Country Share (except the US) 10 2
• Figure 5: US Solar Module Import Trend by Country of Origin 12 2
• Figure 6: Forecast of Actual Supply of PV Modules by Indian Players to the Domestic Market 13 2
• Key Findings 3
• With the expiration of the Free Trade Agreement and an ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigation, India can potentially replace Southeast Asian countries to become the leading PV exporting country to the US. 3
• During periods of domestic supply shortage, certain distributed renewable energy segments, such as residential rooftop solar, will be affected due to their smaller order sizes. 3
• The export of Indian photovoltaic (PV) modules has risen exponentially by more than 23 times between Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 and FY2024, primarily to the US, which accounted for more than 97% of India’s exports in both FY2023 and FY2024. 3
• After accounting for exports, the resultant supply by Indian PV manufacturers available for consumption in India in the next two years will only be 21 gigawatt (GW) and 25GW, which is less than the approximate requirement of 30GW per annum to meet Ind... 3
• Executive Summary 4
• Introduction 5
• Figure 1: PV Exports from India – Annual Trend 6
• Export Growth of Leading Domestic PV Manufacturers 7
• Figure 2: Exports by Leading Domestic PV Manufacturers in FY2024 7
• Indian PV Market Export Destinations 8
• The US 8
• Figure 3: Indian PV Exports to the US vis-à-vis Rest of the World 9
• Rest of the World 10
• Figure 4: Indian PV Exports’ Annual Trend, Destination Region/Country Share (except the US) 10
• Exports to the EU are Yet to Pick Up 10
• Analysis of US Solar Module Imports 11
• Figure 5: US Solar Module Import Trend by Country of Origin 12
• Trends Favouring the Shift from SEA Countries to India 12
• PV Exports can Impact Domestic Supply-Demand Gap 13
• Figure 6: Forecast of Actual Supply of PV Modules by Indian Players to the Domestic Market 13
• Impact on Government Projects 13
• Impact on Utility-scale Solar Projects 14
• Conclusion 14
• About IEEFA 16
• About the Author 16