March 2021 Working Paper 005.2021

In the remainder of the paper we estimate the expected magnitude of the growth in the regional demand for different meat types by 2050. [...] Scope of the analysis The aim of this paper is to evaluate pathways of meat consumption in SSA to 2050 to appraise the potential environmental implications in the region and globally. [...] This region variable thus embeds the unmeasured regional socio-cultural factors which define the magnitude and functional form of the relationship between the regressors and the consumption of the different meat type in each region. [...] For each scenario, in the 2020s the resource efficiency is assumed to reflect 90% of today’s SSA’s efficiency an 10% of the reference region median efficiency; in the 2030s the ratio shifts to 80% and 20%, respectively; in the 2040s to 65% and 35% each; and in year 2050s it reaches levels of 50% for both today’s SSA coefficients and the reference regions coefficients. [...] Environmental impacts of the supply-chain of meat depends on the production of the total quantities required, the resource efficiency of the adopted production processes (i.e.