Additional Scenario of the Primes Modelling on the EU Climate and Energy

So far PRIMES results have shown o The modelling of behaviours is founded on that pursuing high RES and EE micro-economics and is subject to targets is likely to weaken price engineering-type constraints with explicit signals of ETS expected for the present and future technologies period 2020-2030. [...] o Generally perfect anticipation is assumed for the actors but risk-averse behaviours are also modelled 2030 EU CLIMATE AND ENERGY FRAMEWORK: WHAT IS THE MOST COST- 14/10/2014 3 EFFICIENT AND SUSTAINABLE PATHWAY? Assumptions of the scenario Targets: Scenario assumptions concerning direct • 2030: effects of the sectorial targets: • 40% GHG emission reduction • Capital cost reduction for investors •. [...] auction payments and disutility (bnEUR’2010) Total energy system costs, cumulatively until 2030, are found in 40/30/30/MSR similar to the EC GHG40 scenario despite the addition of the sectoral targets and the ETS reform. [...] The scenario assumption that the measures and sectorial targets in EE and RES reduce capital costs for investors is the main explanation of the lower costs. [...] The structural reform of the ETS, based on the MSR, is anyway necessary to induce stability of the ETS and to avoid long periods of low prices followed by strong price increases, as shown in some of the PRIMES scenarios in the absence of ETS reform Regarding costs it is important to consider focused measures which eventually remove barriers and facilitate reduction of capital costs in EE and RES;.