2030 European - Energy and Transport 2020

carbon capture and storage (CCS) – which is a possible The baseline price assumptions for the EU are the result of option in the Baseline scenario3; world energy modelling that derives price trajectories for oil, • Climate change (continuation of the EU ETS over the gas and coal under a conventional wisdom view of the de- velopment of the world energy system. [...] 1.1 The Nature of the Baseline Scenario The main source of data is Eurostat and in particular the The Baseline scenario is a projection of the future evolution detailed energy balances9 per EU Member-State from the of the European energy demand and supply system reflect- year 1990 up to the year 2005 inclusive. [...] The Baseline scenario takes into account energy efficiency The PRIMES model includes many details on a large num- gains, the penetration of new technologies and renewables, ber of technologies in the demand and supply sides of the as well as changes in the energy mix driven by relative energy system and ensures that energy demand and sup- prices and costs. [...] Nevertheless, the projec- ture of the energy mix, the distribution of energy demand tion shows that the world is likely to require 70% more pri- and supply by world region and in the energy intensity of mary energy in 2030 than in 2001. [...] line with that of the “Partial implementation scenario (P-scenario) developed with the use of the SCENES model under the ASSESS The projections of transportation activities were handled by study of DG TREN (2005) for the mid-term review of the Transport the model SCENES which is specialised in transport plan- White Paper.