cover image: Intervention Size and Persistence (English)

20.500.12592/vtrf1r

Intervention Size and Persistence (English)

8 Sep 2021

Do larger interventions improve longer run outcomes more cost effectively? And should poverty traps motivate increasing intervention size? This paper considers two approaches to increasing intervention size in the context of temporary unconditional cash transfers - larger transfers (intensity), and adding complementary graduation program interventions (scope). It does so leveraging 38 experimental estimates of dynamic consumption impacts from 14 developing countries. First, increasing intensity decreases cost effectiveness and does not affect persistence of impacts. This result can be explained by poverty traps or decreasing marginal return on investment in a standard buffer stock model. Second, increasing scope increases impacts and persistence, but reduces cost effectiveness at commonly evaluated time horizons and increases heterogeneity. In summary, larger interventions need not have more persistent impacts, and when they do, this may come at the expense of cost effectiveness, and poverty traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for these results.
consumption household consumption return on investment conditional cash transfer cash transfers poverty threshold confidence interval net present value coefficient of variation maximum likelihood estimation standard error internal rate of return cash transfer central limit theorem weighted average marginal propensity to consume buffer stock parameter of interest descriptive statistic richer countries point estimate time horizon increase in consumption targeting the ultra poor impact of intervention development impact evaluation value of transfer categories of interventions sampling error economic and social mobility impact of transfer poverty trap unconditional transfers marginal return effect of transfer constant return effect on consumption effective poverty reduction costs of implementation decreasing return deworming class of model choice of method large transfer measures of impact future consumption sample standard deviation transfer size target poverty reduction role of poverty

Authors

Kondylis,Florence, Loeser,John Ashton

Disclosure Date
2021/09/08
Disclosure Status
Disclosed
Doc Name
Intervention Size and Persistence
Originating Unit
DIME Gender, Eco Opp & Fragility (DIME2)
Published in
United States of America
Series Name
Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 9769;
Total Volume(s)
1
Unit Owning
Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
Version Type
Final
Volume No
1

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