Security situation in Afghanistan: Implications for Europe

Just over two months after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan on 15 August 2021, the movement remains politically isolated. So far, no country has recognised the caretaker government that the new leaders announced on 7 September 2021. The humanitarian situation in a country that largely depended on foreign aid to survive is deteriorating rapidly, so much so that international aid organisations describe the situation as a 'humanitarian meltdown'. Aware that the collapse of the economic and financial system in Afghanistan would impact heavily on the stability of the country, the region and beyond, the international community has mobilised large amounts of funds, including €1 billion in humanitarian aid from the EU budget. While no major population movements out of Afghanistan have been detected so far, the EU is determined to avoid a crisis reminiscent of the 2015 refugee crisis prompted by the Syrian civil war. EU assistance is partly destined for countries in the region hosting Afghan refugees. In the longer term, the EU is concerned that Afghanistan could revert to being a safe haven for international terrorists who might target EU countries. The EU's preparedness to deal with the threat from terrorism has evolved significantly over the past decade. In response to events in Afghanistan, the Council published a counter-terrorism action plan on Afghanistan in September, setting out four clear objectives, and making 22 recommendations for action. The United States government's determination to leave Afghanistan according to a set timetable, irrespective of allies' reservations, has reignited the debate over the need for greater EU strategic autonomy. The EU's 'strategic compass' process provides a framework for these discussions, including negotiations over a potential future rapid reaction or 'initial entry' force, able to provide a European capability to react to events such as those that unfolded in Afghanistan. Members of the European Parliament have called on the EU to reinforce significantly its capacity to act autonomously and for the strategic compass to address the terrorist threat from Afghanistan.