Coherent Identifier About this item: 20.500.12592/cgkqrs

Urban CO2 Emissions : A Global Analysis with New Satellite Data (English)

10 November 2021

Summary

This paper estimates an urban carbon dioxide emissions model using satellite-measured carbon dioxide concentrations from 2014 to 2020, for 1,236 cities in 138 countries. The model incorporates the global trend in carbon dioxide concentration, seasonal fluctuations by hemisphere, and a large set of georeferenced variables that incorporate carbon dioxide-intensive industry structure, emissions from agricultural and forest fires in neighboring areas, demography, the component of income that is uncorrelated with industry structure, and relevant geographic conditions. The income results provide the first test of an Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship for carbon dioxide based on actual observations. They suggest an environmental Kuznets curve that reaches a peak near or above $40,000 per capita, which is at the 90th percentile internationally. The research also finds that economic development has a significant effect on the direction of the relationship between population density and carbon dioxide emissions. The relationship is positive at very low incomes but becomes negative at higher incomes. The paper also uses cities' mean regression residuals to index their carbon dioxide emissions performance within and across regions, decomposes model carbon dioxide predictions into broad source categories for each city, and uses the regression residuals to explore the impact of subway systems. The findings show significantly lower carbon dioxide emissions for subway cities.

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disaster risk management urban development population density transport urban transport european space agency energy demand bus rapid transit subway energy and mining former soviet union energy and environment transport services local air pollution world greenhouse gas reduction barrels per day subway system mass transit system energy and extractives the world region railways transport urban rail urban economic development high population density carbon dioxide emission transport in urban areas co2 emission aging and health future research fossil fuel combustion relationship between population detailed technical assessment local air pollutant gas-fired power plant global temperature increase change in population climate change analysis industry structure spatial distribution of population global carbon emission oil-fired power fuel price elasticity global surface temperature heating degree days atmospheric co2 concentration mass transit investment regression residual

Disclosure Date
2021/11/10
Disclosure Status
Disclosed
Doc Name
Urban CO2 Emissions : A Global Analysis with New Satellite Data
Originating Unit
EFI Chief Economist Office (EFICE)
Series Name
Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 9845;
Total Volume(s)
1
Unit Owning
Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP),DEC-Sustainability & Infrastruct (DECSI)
Version Type
Final
Volume No
1

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