Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.
Authors
Hasegawa, Tomoko,
Fujimori, Shinichiro,
Frank, Stefan,
Humpenöder, Florian,
Bertram, Christoph,
Després, Jacques,
Drouet, Laurent,
Emmerling, Johannes,
Gusti, Mykola,
Harmsen, Mathijs,
Keramidas, Kimon,
Ochi, Yuki,
Oshiro, Ken,
Rochedo, Pedro,
van Ruijven, Bas,
Cabardos, Anique-Marie,
Deppermann, Andre,
Fosse, Florian,
Havlik, Petr,
Krey, Volker,
Popp, Alexander,
Schaeffer, Roberto,
van Vuuren, Detlef,
Riahi, Keywan
- Citation
-
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Frank, S., Humpenöder, F., Bertram, C., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Gusti, M., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Ochi, Y., Oshiro, K., Rochedo, P., van Ruijven, B., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Fosse, F., Havlik, P., Krey, V., Popp, A., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. (2021 online): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. - Nature Sustainability.
- DOI
-
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
- Published in
-
Germany