Coherent Identifier About this item: 20.500.12592/vj5r0h

Learning About the Long Run

18 November 2021

Summary

Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, forecast errors are autocorrelated, and forecast revisions predict forecast errors. Sticky or noisy information models seem like unlikely explanations for these anomalies: professional forecasters pay attention constantly and have precise knowledge of the data in question. We propose that these anomalies arise because professional forecasters don鈥檛 know the model that generates the data. We show that Bayesian agents learning about hard-to-learn features of the data generating process (low frequency behavior) can generate all the prominent aggregate anomalies emphasized in the literature. We show this for two applications: professional forecasts of nominal interest rates for the sample period 1980-2019 and CBO forecasts of GDP growth for the sample period 1976- 2019. Our learning model for interest rates also provides an explanation for deviations from the expectations hypothesis of the term structure that does not rely on time-variation in risk premia.

Authors

Tags

business cycles macroeconomics asset pricing financial economics monetary economics economic fluctuations and growth portfolio selection and asset pricing money and interest rates

Acknowledgements & Disclosure
We thank Abhi Gupta and Ethan McClure for excellent research assistance. We thank Assaf Ben-Shoham, Daniel Benjamin, John Campbell, Gary Chamberlain, Anna Cieslak, Nicolas Chopin, Gopi Gaswami, Michael Johannes, David Laibson, Omiros Papaspiliopoulos and seminar participants at various institutions for valuable comments and discussions. We thank the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Bankard Fund for Political Economy at the University of Virginia for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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