Coherent Identifier About this item: 20.500.12592/n6gfws

BRIEFING NOTE - “Net zero 2050”: A dangerous illusion - JULY 2021

1 August 2021

Summary

These models “may not be able to accurately predict the economic and financial impact of climate change because of the complexity of the links and the intrinsic non-linearity of the related phenomena” (Bolton et al. [...] • Social construction: Depending on how modellers perceive the roots of the problem to be solved, they will “design the model structure, including possible instruments and relationships within the model accordingly… Hence, the very structure of a model depends on the modeller’s beliefs about the functioning of society” (Ellenbeck & Lilliestam 2019, Energy Research & Social Science 47:69-77). [...] • Urgency: The latest extreme climate impacts around the world, in the Western USA and Canada, the Arctic, Siberia, the Amazon and Western Europe are only the latest demonstration of the profound irresponsibility of relying on a NZ2050 framing for serious climate action. [...] That’s the theory behind the new carbon- offset market being conceived by Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England, and Bill Winters, the chief executive of Standard Chartered Plc… Carney says the unified market for carbon offsets could be worth $100 billion by the end of the decade, up from about $300 million in 2018… If Carney’s forecast for market demand proves correct, hundreds of. [...] The practice is so common that the certificates are often described by critics as “papal indulgences,” reminiscent of the way Catholics in the Middle Ages made payments to the Church to eliminate the stain of sinful deeds… “Verifying that an offset corresponds to a ton of CO₂ removed from the real-world atmosphere is a problem climate experts have been trying to solve for years.

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