Conditions for protected area effectiveness - Stephen Woodley Vice Chair for Science and Biodiversity

Nature Communications 2016 • What’s the overall trend of populations? • What types of species are benefitting more? • Under what circumstances are protected areas effective? Drivers Explanatory variables - Site (Protected Area), species and country scales - 6 non-exclusive categories • Design (e.g. [...] length) Socio-economic metrics • Human Development Index (HDI) – Hunger (Malnutrition) – Corruption Index – GDP (Gross Domestic Product) • Wealthier countries have more capacity, resources OR • Developing countries have greater threats, more resource dependence OR • An axis of governance? Body Mass • Larger bodied biodiversity doing better • Management effect? Marine Conclusions Are Similar (Edgar. [...] 2013, updated 2017 • Protected areas are working - Terrestrial - 117 counterfactual studies: • 74% positive impact • 12% negative • 10% no effect • 4% had mixed results • Outcome results are highly variable • We have weak metrics of success • There are many predictors of success and failure. [...] (2015) Sound governance/sound management • Ecological integrity Ecological Outcomes • Species, Cover • Ecosystem Services 100 • Who decides • Enforcement • Who benefits • Restoration • Corruption • Monitoring • Capacity 100 • Size Ecological Design • Location • connectivity Governance 100 Management 100 Factors Determining Positive Ecological Outcomes in Protected Areas high low low high Cumulativ. [...] Species threat status is significant – higher threat species doing relatively poorer Recommendation for New Targets • Need both PA quality and quantity (scaling up) – refocus on quality • Quality is a function of location (Impact) and effectiveness (Ecological outcomes) • Effectiveness is a function of governance, management and ecological design • Need all elements in a new target – Impact – Effe.