EXPERT BRIEF - THE VOTER INTENTION-BEHAVIOUR GAP, PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND THE

Introduction A roadmap to Libya’s national elections was agreed following the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) in the hopes of ending a long period of instability. [...] Efforts to forecast the election report at least 58% of people nationally are likely to vote.2 On the surface these responses align with the position held by policymakers: early elections provide post-conflict stability and public buy-in to the process is strong.3 In reality, voting is a high-cost low-benefit activity for citizens. [...] Although pollsters have long relied on such polls as a major component of electoral forecast calculations, the method is notoriously problematic and linked to several high-profile forecast failures, including the 2016 US Election and UK Brexit Referendum.5 One contributing factor to forecast failures is the likeliness of respondents over-reporting their willingness to vote, due to a strong incenti. [...] This could replicate the outcome of the 2014 election and reignite conflict.31 Political scientists argue elections should be postponed on the grounds of electoral integrity, including equality of participation. [...] While many have collected their voter card, the HNEC must determine the impact of polling station closures and address incidents of stolen voter cards.33 In addition, concerted efforts are needed Given Libya’s limited voting history, previous poor turnout, and costly socio-political and economic conditions, there is a risk the legitimacy of elections will be contested due to low voter turnout 7 to.