cover image: What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK?

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What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK?

7 Jan 2022

This policy briefing examines the most recent data on live births to determine what the impact of Covid-19 has been on fertility in the countries of the UK, and then summarises findings from some scenario-based projections of fertility between 2021 and 2023. [...] This policy briefing provides an overview of the key findings of a Population, Space and Place article available at Key Points: ◼ The most recent data suggest a short-term decline in births in England and Wales, and Scotland, and little change in Northern Ireland, following the first Covid-19 lockdown. [...] This policy brief lower in November and December 2020 compared examines the most recent data on live births to determine with 2019, but this was already the trend throughout what the impact of Covid-19 has been on fertility in the earlier months in 2020, prior to Covid-19. [...] Projected scenarios of fertility change ESRC Centre for Population Change 3 What is the likely impact of Covid-19 on fertility in the UK? POLICY BRIEFING 66 Regardless of the influence of Covid-19, the baseline of 1.43 in England and Wales, 1.16 in Scotland, and 1.60 in trend we use has a very important effect on projected Northern Ireland. [...] Due to high uncertainty in predicting human behaviour after a global pandemic, it is difficult to make accurate Only Scenario 1 predicts an increase: The TFR climbs from estimates of the size of the effect of Covid-19 on future 1.60 births per woman in 2020 to 1.65 in 2023 in England fertility rates.
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4
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United Kingdom