cover image: Syrian Thaw? Arab Normalization with Damascus Ahead of the Arab League Summit

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Syrian Thaw? Arab Normalization with Damascus Ahead of the Arab League Summit

12 Jan 2022

As Arab states prepare to reconvene this March for the 37th Arab League Summit in Algiers, one topic looms large over the agenda: the readmission of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, expelled in 2011. An increasing number of regional players have thrown weight behind Syria’s return, both traditional Syrian allies like Algeria and Iraq, and more notably, the once-hostile United Arab Emirates and Jordan. In response, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit posited that Damascus may well regain its seat–if consensus can be reached among all Arab nations. To some observers, this level of engagement with Syria may come as a surprise. Despite private discussions on Syria’s rehabilitation ahead of the last Arab League Summit in Tunis, nearly three years ago, debate on Syria’s potential return was ultimately not placed on the official summit agenda. Yet, the same heavyweights behind those closed-door talks, namely Egypt, the UAE, and Jordan, have returned to the forefront in 2021, after engaging in a flurry of meetings, negotiations, and agreements with Damascus. Given this continuity, recent Arab reengagement with Syria should not be seen as a sudden change of heart. Rather, it represents the crescendo of geopolitical trends that have been slowly gaining traction since 2016. While many Arab states have begun the process of normalization with Syria, each is doing so at a different pace. This pace reflects not only the varying challenges and opportunities détente with Syria brings for each state, but also the varying degrees of leverage al-Assad holds over his interlocutors. So far, Damascus has managed to carve out significant economic lifelines, while bolstering its international legitimacy–all without making any serious concessions. In this sense, the al-Assad regime has already achieved a significant degree of regional rehabilitation, albeit tentative and informal. Readmission to the Arab League in March would more formally recognize al-Assad’s international legitimacy, and serve as an important symbol of Syria’s return to the Arab fold. It remains to be seen whether Arab states, as well as their extra-regional allies, will be willing to take such a step.

Authors

Duncan Randall

Published in
United States of America