2021-12-10 Gatehouse Weekly Geopolitical Update

Fitch became the first rating agency to declare Evergrande’s overseas bonds to be in default this week, and new statistics revealed a worsening demographic situation, with Chinese weddings falling to a 13-year-low in the first three quarters of 2021. [...] The CCP’s decision to double down on political control in response to economic headwinds, notably by tightening control on the People’s Bank of China, increases the scope for policy miscalculation. [...] EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has stated that this could warrant the use of the EU’s new anti-coercion instrument and plans to investigate whether the CCP’s actions are in violation of WTO rules. [...] However, Greens leader and Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock may seek to adopt a tougher line on Russia in particular, with the debate over Nord Stream 2 likely to return strongly in the event of any military action in Ukraine. [...] Olympics: The US, Australia, Canada, Lithuania, New Zealand and the UK announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics due to concerns over human rights in Xinjiang.