This brief covers several aspects relating to the current
Ukrainian war, including the frequency of past acts of terrorism
in Russia, Ukraine and Georgia and covers likely future
scenarios. It also analyses cyberattacks on Ukraine over the last
decade and lead up to the current war.
The main finding is that terrorism increases with the intensity
of conflict. Both the Georgian conflict in 2008 and the Ukrainian
conflict of 2014 saw substantial spikes in terrorist activity
around the wars, and as the current war intensifies increased
terrorist activity should be expected.
Secondly, cyberattacks on Ukraine have markedly increased over
the last decade, and especially in the months and weeks leading
up to the war. Further, cyberattacks have the potential to
unintentionally spill over into other countries because of global
connectivity, the effects of which have been seen on numerous
occasions. As cyberattacks by nefarious actors are a recent
phenomenon, and given the difficulty in the attribution of such
attacks, the demarcation between what constitutes a
cyberattack, cyber warfare or cyber terrorism are unclear.
Regardless, this briefing looks at the broad phenomena of
cyberattacks in Ukraine to offer background on recent events.
Authors
- Published in
- Australia